IMF敦促美國推遲加息

　　6月5日VOA聽力：IMF催促美國推延加息至2016

　　The International Monetary Fund is urging theU.S. central bank to delay its planned interestrate hike until 2016. Although the IMF says theunderpinnings for continued growth are still inplace, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagardesays recent data suggest U.S. growth is likely toremain subpar. Her comments reflect new concerns about the world's largest economy,which shrank 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year.

　　Earlier optimism about the U.S. economy has faded a bit, after new data showed momentumslowing between January and March – the result of a harsh winter and a stronger U.S. dollarthat has made U.S. goods more expensive abroad.

　　IMF chief Christine Lagarde says raising U.S. rates too soon could result in significant marketvolatility around the world.

　　“In weighing this risk, we think that there is a case for waiting to raise rates until there are moretangible signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. So, in other words, webelieve that a rate hike would be better off in early 2016," said Lagarde.

　　Buoyed by a steady improvement in the labor market, the central bank had signaled amodest rate hike by the middle of the year, its first in nearly nine years. But the contraction inthe first quarter and a slowdown in spending suggest consumers remain wary. Consumerspending rose only 1.8 percent in the first three months of 2015 – a surprisingly modestincrease given the more than five percent jump in disposable income, says Federal Reserveboard member Lael Brainard.

　　“Continuing softness in consumption this year would naturally raise some questions aboutwhether there’s a more persistent change afoot – in particular, whether the financial crisismay have caused consumers to be more cautious about spending gains in income and wealththat are perceived to be temporary," said Brainard.

　　But others believe the U.S. slowdown was an aberration. Ethan Harris, head of globaleconomics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects a rate hike in September.

　　“Relative to where we were say a few years ago, the banking sector is in much better health, thehousing market’s improving, we don’t have any major fiscal shocks going on right now, wedon’t have a fiscal cliff looming, we don’t have a shutdown looming in Washington, so you kindof take a better backdrop for the economy in terms of healing," said Harris.

　　A new survey of the American Bankers Association's top economists predicts a rebound in thesecond half of the year, but the IMF has downgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growthfrom 3.1 percent to 2.5 percent in 2015.

　　【參考譯文】

　　國際泉幣基金構造催促美國央即將原籌劃的加息耽誤到2016年，只管IMF稱持續增加的基本仍在，其總裁克裏斯汀娜·拉加德稱比來的數據註解美國增加大概仍欠佳。她的談吐註解人們對天下最大經濟體的新的擔心，本年第一季度美國經濟萎縮了0.7%。

　　以前對美國經濟的樂觀情感有所消退，這是由於有最新數據註解1月份到3月份之間增加勢頭緩解，這是由於隆冬和強勢美元使得美國商品在外洋變得更貴。

　　IMF總裁克裏斯汀娜·拉加德稱，美國過早加息會致使環球規模內偉大的市場動蕩。

　　“就權衡危害來講，我想咱們有來由比及有更確切的跡象註解人為或價錢上漲比今朝更顯著的時刻再加息，也便是說，咱們以為在2016歲首年月加息比擬好。”

　　遭到勞工市場安穩好轉的勉勵，央行發出旌旗燈號，表現會在本年年中平和加息，這是近9年來的第一次。但第一季度的壓縮和開支削減註解花費者仍很小心。2015年第一季度花費者開支只增加了1.8%，與可安排收入5%的增加比擬，這個增速不溫不火，這一點使人受驚，美聯儲董事會成員萊爾·布瑞拉德如是說。

　　“本年花費不振的持續天然讓人們質疑是不是會產生連續的轉變，特別是，金融危急是不是已致使花費者在開支方面加倍謹嚴，是不是人們收入和財產的增長是臨時的。”

　　但也有人以為美國增加的放緩是變態的，美洲銀行環球經濟研討賣力人伊桑·哈裏森猜測9月份會加息。

　　“與幾年前比擬，銀行業成長比擬康健，衡宇市場也在好轉，今朝並無產生龐大的財務動蕩，也沒有財務絕壁湧現，華盛頓也沒有要關門，以是在經濟蘇醒方面咱們的處境不錯。”

　　美國銀內行協會對高等經濟學家的最新查詢拜訪猜測本年下半年會產生回彈，但IMF已將美國2015年的經濟成長猜測從3.1%調低到2.5%。