別對中國股市下跌幸災樂禍

　　本日口譯文章：別對中國股市下跌幸災樂禍

　　上周中國股市直線下跌的氣象讓很多西方視察者覺得幸災樂禍，他們還記得，就在環球金融危急暴發後不久，中國曾誌得意滿地談到本身的金融系統具有優勝性。

　　他們的知足感是可以懂得的。羈系機談判當局官員的表示很少像近幾日如許失望和失控——本來是想要讓牛市放慢腳步，沒想到造成為了一場狂跌，因而又猖狂地多管齊下托市。

　　在股價下跌的浩瀚緣故原由當中，有一個是影子銀行的感化。部門投資者想要乞貸炒股，押註於股價的賡續上升，影子銀行向他們供給了杠桿。只管沒幾個外部視察人士將影子銀行和這一詳細的軟弱性起源接洽到一路，但專家們不是一向告誡稱北京方面終極會被影子銀行反噬?

　　一家大銀行的首席履行官稱此次股市狂跌為“中國的BB鳥(Roadrunner)時候” (意思是就像那部卡通片裏追逐BB鳥的不利的歪心狼(Coyote)同樣，中國在沖出絕壁以後，才發明腳底踩空，本身已開端向下墜落，但是為時已晚)，但這個“BB鳥時候”並不但是中國的。

　　在各個金融市場接洽日趨慎密、一個市場打個踉就會敏捷傳導到其他市場確當今天下，中國股市下跌的蕩漾效應極可能會對外匯、大批商品、信貸和國債等一系列市場造成長期影響，並且還會影響到在華外企的運氣。

　　別的，中國股市下滑之際，中國經濟已然在放緩，固然它如今的基數比曩昔大很多。這象征著中國的外匯貯備增速會變慢，發生的從新流向其他國度的美元也會削減。

　　與此同時，中國當局必需投入更多資金培植海內經濟，並確保股市的淩亂不會像曩昔那樣激發陌頭動亂。經濟放緩，加之需動用更多現有貯備彌補海內企業和小我的資產欠債表洞穴，大概象征著流向美國國債市場等外部目標地的官方貯備資金會削減。

　　股價下跌對付大批願望削減本身債務的公司特別是壞新聞，豈論它們是願望經由過程刊行股票，照樣經由過程在股市投契發一筆橫財——唉，平日都是用借來的錢——來實現這一目標。如今，它們的債務變得加倍宏大，假如它們借的是美元而又沒有若幹美元收入，它們在亞洲美元債券市場的債權人就有充足來由要擔心了。

　　別的，使浩瀚企業(從澳大利亞鐵礦石臨盆商到總部處於美國的汽車制作商)腰包變鼓的中國需求乃至在此番狂跌以前就開端疲軟了。僅曩昔一周，鐵礦石價錢就下跌了20%，重要緣故原由在於中國要地本地鐵礦石需求量下調。瑞信(Credit Suisse)表現，(不含曩昔10天的)最新數據表現，中國零售總額增加疲軟，而(占零售總額9%的)汽車的需求大幅降低，“末了這個增加引擎也沒有了”。比來幾個月，國民幣跟著美元一路升值，本錢外流(客歲大多半時光的重要特點)削減，官員們公然埋怨稱，國民幣走勢過強。

　　面臨貶值的日元和歐元，中國出口遠景也仿佛也不穩固。不外，在股市下跌30%，當局下降利率和存款預備金率來支持股價以後，國民幣正面對下行壓力。

　　在一個商業險些沒有增加的天下，國民幣任何幅度的貶值，均可能給已然面對經濟增加放和緩月出口大幅下滑的東亞及東南亞國度造成進一步壓力。停止上周末，羈系機構一向在責備賣空者和外國基金，並嚴查外國券商的期貨行動。

　　將股市的大起大落歸結於某種簡略的器械並未捉住關鍵——唱反調的人亦是如斯。股市大起大落的效果極可能在將來一段時代對海內和外洋都造成苦楚。

　　【參考譯文】

　　The spectacle of Chinese shares in freefall last week gave rise to a sense of schadenfreude among many western observers who remember complacent Chinese statements about the superiority its financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis.

　　Such satisfaction is understandable. Rarely have regulators and government officials appeared as desperate and out of control as in recent days, with their efforts to slow a bull market becoming a frenzied multi-pronged effort to arrest a plunge they had failed to anticipate.

　　Among the many reasons for falling share prices was the role of shadow banks in providing leverage to investors who were happy to borrow money and bet on ever rising share prices. And while few outside observers made the connection between the shadow banks and this particular source of vulnerability, hadn’t the pundits warned all along that the shadow banks would ultimately come to haunt Beijing?

　　One big bank chief executive has referred to “China’s Roadrunner moment” — when, like Wile E Coyote, the cartoon bird’s ill-fated pursuer, the economy realises that, having run off the edge of a cliff, the ground no longer supports it, and it falls. But this is not a Roadrunner moment just for China.

　　In a world where linkages between financial markets are ever closer, and any big lurch quickly travels, the ripple effects of the drop in Chinese shares will probably have lasting consequences across a range of markets, including credit, currencies, commodities and Treasuries, and will influence the fortunes of foreign companies in China.

　　Moreover China’s economy was already slowing, albeit off a much larger base than in the past. That means China will create less foreign exchange reserves, and fewer dollars to circulate back to the rest of the world.

　　At the same time the government has to spend more money nurturing the domestic economy and making sure stock market chaos does not lead to riots in the streets, as it has in the past. The combination of a slowing economy and more claims on existing reserves to fill holes in balance sheets may reduce official flows to such external destinations as the US Treasury market.

　　The drop in share prices is especially bad news for the numerous companies that hoped to reduce their debts, either by issuing shares or by making windfall profits through canny investments in the market — often, alas, with borrowed money. Now their debts are even bigger, and if they borrowed in dollars and have few dollar revenues, their creditors in the Asian dollar bond market have good reason for concern.

　　In addition Chinese demand — which fed the coffers of everyone from iron ore miners in Australia to carmakers headquartered in the US — was softening even before the setback. Iron ore prices have fallen 20 per cent in the past week alone, largely on downward revisions of demand from the mainland. The latest data (which do not reflect the turbulence of the past 10 days) show Chinese retail sales weakening, while demand for cars (9 per cent of that) declined sharply, “taking away the final growth engine”, says Credit Suisse. In recent months officials fretted openly that the currency was too strong, as the renminbi rose in tandem with the dollar and capital outflows, a feature of much of last year, dwindled.

　　Export prospects also appeared shakier in the face of a cheaper yen and cheaper euro. Now, though, after a 30 per cent fall in the stock market, and interest rate and reserve ratio cuts to support share prices in response, the renminbi is under downward pressure instead.

　　In a world where trade is almost flat, any fall in the value of the renminbi is likely to put further pressure on countries in both East Asia and Southeast Asia that already face slowing growth and large drops in monthly exports. By the end of last week regulators were excoriating short sellers and foreign funds, and grilling foreign brokers on their futures activities.

　　To turn the tumultuous stock market ride into something simple misses the point — as do the naysayers. Its consequences are likely to be painful both on the mainland and beyond its borders for a while to come.