美國不加息對新興市場影響不同

2015/09/30 瀏覽次數:50 收藏
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  9月30日口譯文章:美國不加息對新興市場影響分歧

  市場老是在說,美聯儲(Fed)有3種政策制訂者:鷹派、鴿派和小雞派。上周制訂政策的明顯是小雞派,由於美聯儲決議將利率保持在汗青最低位。只管市場訂價(而不是對經濟學家的查詢拜訪)此前根本上估計到了該決議,但美聯儲的謹嚴水平仍使人覺得不測,這家美國央行把中國、環球金融不肯定性和海內通脹太低等多項身分列為暫緩加息的來由。

  美聯儲按兵不動,對一樣仿徨於零下限泉幣政策的別的蓬勃國度央行的影響最大。跟著歐元兌美元再次上漲,歐洲央行(ECB)大概最先在本年10月表示,將擴展其量化寬松項目——大概起首把停止日期推至2016年9月今後,然後增長月度購置金額。

  日本央行(BoJ)加大當前寬松政策力度的大概性也在增長,只管它大概須要更長期能力做出決議。而此前被以為最有大概“追隨美聯儲”、緊隨厥後加息的英國央行(BoE),如今將可以或許在經濟數據顯著利害各半的情形下按兵不動。

  至於新興市場,英國《金融時報》旗下的宏觀研討辦事機構Medley Global Advisors以為,可以把它們大抵分成3組:美聯儲不加息決議險些沒有影響的國度,美聯儲不加息決議有贊助的國度,和美聯儲不加息決議只是讓政策更加龐雜化的國度。

  統統還是

  中國將持續致力於海內事件。美元走弱大概有助於緩解中國的本錢外流,削減中國國民銀行(PBoC)的幹涉範圍,但幅度都不會太大。在國民幣進一步貶值預期仍然根深蒂固之際,本錢外流將會連續,而中國將出台降息降準舉動作為應答。

  俄羅斯也將在賡續降低的海內通脹許可的情形下持續降息,以支撐敏捷萎縮的經濟。美元疲弱有所贊助,但癥結是油價和上一波盧布弱勢對通脹的影響。

  大多半中東歐國度也不受影響,但緣故原由可喜很多。波蘭、匈牙利、捷克和羅馬尼亞的經濟增加仍然強勁(大概最少還算不錯);通脹仍然堅持低位;並且利率已位於創記載的低點,該地域的列國央行等得起歐元區甚至環球慢慢規復強勁增加。

  吾友之助

  另外一方面,美聯儲不加息決議對一些最為軟弱的新興經濟體異常有效。在加息速率和幅度超越初誌後,巴西央行宣告從7月下旬起停息加息。但它已擔當到新的采用行為的壓力,由於通脹愈來愈高,並且在該國的信譽評級被降至垃圾級以後,雷亞爾匯率狂跌至近4雷亞爾兌1美元的程度。美國利率穩固和美元疲弱大概有助於巴西央行防止給闌珊的海內經濟帶來更多苦楚。

  一樣,美聯儲越推延加息,就越有益於土耳其。鑒於通脹數據糟、泉幣疲弱和看起來即使在11月第二次推舉以後政治僵局仍會連續,土耳其將不能不在某臨時點加息。但土耳其增加疲弱,該國央行越遲收緊政策,其政治主子就會越愉快。

  南非是最初的“軟弱五國”(Fragile Five)的一員,該國面對一樣的制約。經濟運動低迷,泉幣疲弱和海內通脹太高——礦工們爭奪到的進一步大幅加薪協定還大概進一步推高通脹。作為回應,南非央行在本年7月走上利率正常化途徑,但它越能放慢腳步,經濟墮入闌珊的概率就越小。

  墨西哥的處境只管要強勁很多,但也有來由感激美聯儲。因為鄰接美國,並且市場活動性泛濫(這使比索的顛簸性超越根本面身分的影響規模),此前墨西哥被視為又一個註定跟隨美聯儲加息的國度。但是,因為其海內通脹率唯一2.5%,為上世紀60年月以來的最低程度,墨西哥自己完整沒有來由加息。

  亞洲一些國度的央行也大概覺得愉快,但出於相反的來由。它們此前估計美聯儲將在本年加息,切實其實,印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)等央行曾號令美聯儲爽直地按籌劃加息。但在基本層面,它們擔憂美元進一步升值對本幣的影響,和它們為了支撐匯率而被迫出台幹涉甚至泉幣政策辦法。比擬之下,從純潔海內的角度來看,它們情願刺激家庭和企業付出,對大眾基本舉措措施投資放緩做出賠償。韓國頗有大概在歲尾前再次降息。假如美聯儲推延至來歲加息,那末馬來西亞、印尼和泰國也大概有放松政策的空間。

  被美聯儲和峭壁擠在中央

  行將舉辦的最為辣手的政策集會之一將是哥倫比亞央行在9月25日舉辦的集會。在通脹連續不測高企以後,投資者估計哥倫比亞將開啟加息周期。但因為該行理事會的鷹派和鴿派仿佛半斤八兩,它迄今堅持利率穩定。Medley Global Advisors原來估計,哥倫比亞央行理事會本周將會以4票對3票的表決成果加息25個基點,行長若澤烏裏韋(Jose Uribe)將轉變態度,投票支撐加息。但是,既然美聯儲按兵不動,大概哥倫比亞央行也會如斯。

  哥倫比亞在安第斯山脈的鄰國智利本月早些時刻選取堅持利率穩定,只管它的下一步也將是加息,但美國耽誤收緊政策,大概匆匆使智利央行也推延加息周期,特別是假如如今智利比索匯率堅持安穩的話。與此同時,秘魯已開端加息以反抗價錢的敏捷上升,該國極可能被迫持續加息,但將來幾個月該國面對的危害看起來有點大,秘魯比索賡續升值大概損壞出口。

  假如美聯儲推延加息僅僅1個月或3個月,那末新興市場泉幣政策所受的影響將不大,也不會長期。但在其10月政策集會(沒有支配記者會,也不會做出新的猜測)和12月政策集會上(歲尾的活動性題目)轉變政策存在戰術上的艱苦。正因如斯,從市場價錢看,市場估計美聯儲在2016年3月以前不會加息。若果然如斯,那就真的會對其他央行發生影響,特別是由於這表現美聯儲對環球遠景缺少信念。到本年底,咱們會曉得真正執掌美聯儲的是甚麽鳥。

  【參考譯文】

  There are three kinds of policymakers at the Federal Reserve, goes the chatter in the markets: hawks, doves and chickens. It was the third type of bird that was setting policy last week, when the US central bank decided to hold interest rates at their historic low. And while market pricing — as opposed to surveys of economists — had largely anticipated the decision, the Fed still surprised in the extent of its caution, citing China, global financial uncertainties and overly low domestic inflation as reasons to stand still.

  Its lack of action will have the biggest impact on other developed country central banks that are also at the zero lower bound of monetary policy. With the euro once again gaining ground against the dollar, the European Central Bank could signal as soon as October that it will expand its quantitative easing programme — perhaps first by extending its end date beyond September 2016 and then by increasing monthly purchases.

  The odds have also risen that the Bank of Japan will add to its current accommodation, though it is likely to take longer to decide. And surely the Bank of England, which was seen as the bank most likely to “follow the Fed” and raise rates in its wake, will now be able to hold off in the face of decidedly mixed economic data.

  Emerging markets, meanwhile, can be roughly divided into three groups, reckons Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the FT: those where the Fed’s forbearance makes little difference, those where it is helpful and those where it only complicates policy.

  As we were

  China will continue to plough its own furrow. A weaker dollar might reduce the pace of capital outflows from the mainland and the scale of intervention by the People’s Bank of China, but not by much. While expectations of further yuan depreciation remain entrenched, outflows will continue and cuts in interest rates and reserve requirements will come in response to that.

  Russia will also continue to cut rates, and as fast as falling domestic inflation allows, in order to support a rapidly shrinking economy. A weaker dollar is helpful but it is the oil price and the pass-through to inflation from previous rouble weakness that are critical.

  Most of central and eastern Europe is also unaffected, but for much happier reasons. Economic growth in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania remains strong or at least decent; inflation remains low; and with rates already at record lows, the region’s central banks can afford to wait for a gradual strengthening of eurozone and, hopefully, global growth.

  With a little help from my friends

  Fed forbearance, on the other hand, will come in very handy in some of the most fragile emerging economies. After raising rates faster and further than it ever intended, Brazil’s central bank declared itself to be on hold from late July. But it is already under renewed pressure to act as inflation climbs ever higher and the currency’s collapse to almost R$4 to the US dollar following the country’s downgrade to a junk credit rating. Steady US rates and a weaker greenback may be just enough to help the Bacen avoid inflicting further pain on Brazil’s recessionary economy.

  Similarly, the longer the Fed delays hiking, the better for Turkey. Rates will have to rise at some point given poor inflation data, a weak currency and what looks like continuing political deadlock even after a second election in November. But growth is weak and the longer the central bank can avoid tightening, the more pleased its political masters will be.

  South Africa, another of the original “fragile five” EMs, faces the same constraints. Activity is anaemic, the currency weak and domestic inflation too high — with the risk of further large wage settlements for miners driving it higher. In response, the Reserve Bank started normalising rates in July, but the more it can take its time, the less likely it is to push the economy into recession.

  Mexico, while in a much stronger position, also has reason to thank the Fed. Because of its proximity to the US and the deep liquidity of its markets, which makes the peso more volatile than fundamentals justify, it was seen as another country bound to follow the Fed higher. Yet with domestic inflation at barely 2.5 per cent, its lowest level since the 1960s, there is absolutely no reason to do so domestically.

  Some of Asia’s central banks are probably pleased as well — but for the opposite reason. They had anticipated a Fed hike this year and some, like Bank Indonesia, were indeed calling for their US peers to get on with it. But underneath they were concerned about the impact of further dollar strength on their currencies and what they might be forced to do — in terms of intervention and even monetary policy — to shore them up. From a purely domestic standpoint, by contrast, they would prefer to stimulate spending by households and businesses and to compensate for slow public infrastructure investment. South Korea will very likely cut rates again before year end. And if Fed lift-off is delayed into next year, then Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand may feel free to ease as well.

  Between the Fed and a hard place

  One of the trickiest upcoming policy meetings will be that of Banrep, Colombia’s central bank, on September 25. Following several unexpectedly high inflation prints, investors are anticipating the start of a hiking cycle. But with Banrep’s board seemingly split between hawks and doves, it has so far held off. MGA was expecting the board to vote 4-to-3 to raise rates by 25bp this week, with governor Jose Uribe switching his vote in favour of the move. Now that the Fed has stayed on the sidelines, however, perhaps Colombia will too.

  Its Andean neighbour, Chile, opted to hold rates earlier this month and while its next move will also be an increase, delays in US tightening could prompt the Chileans to postpone the beginning of their cycle as well, especially if the peso now stays on an even keel. Meanwhile, Peru, which already started to hike to counter rapidly rising prices, will probably be forced to continue — but could look a little exposed over the next few months and a strengthening sol could damage exports.

  If the Fed has only delayed lift-off by a month or three, then the effect on EM monetary policy will not be significant or long-lasting. But there are tactical difficulties to changing policy either at its meetings in October (no scheduled press conference and no new forecasts) and December (year-end liquidity issues). Which is why markets are not fully pricing a rate rise until March 2016. If it stays on hold until then, that really would have implications for its peers, not least by signalling a lack of confidence in the global outlook. By year end, we will know which birds are really in charge.