8月17日口譯文章：日本年青人分歧的運氣
在日本勞動力市場，你只有一次勝利的機遇——未幾也很多。當2007年天下經濟開端下行時，18歲的竹田(Takeda)錯過了本身的機遇。
他所上的技巧高中盡力贊助本身的門生找事情，但他是個含羞的年青人，在那年不景氣的市場情況下沒有找到事情——也無法從新來過。竹田不願望文章中湧現他的全名。他把接下來的六年描寫成“玄色”的六年。
“假如你卒業時沒找到事情，再想找到事情就異常艱苦了，”竹田說。他乃至得不到一份兼職事情。“我其時沒有任何事情履歷。一旦你的經驗上有一段空缺期，要找到一份事情就變得極度艱苦。”
經濟通縮和日本的畢生就業軌制是一種有害的聯合，竹田就成了這類聯合的就義品。榮幸的高中和大學卒業生會找到一份可以從事一生的事情。那些卒業時沒找到事情的人，就進入了一種傷害的沒著衰敗狀況，只能簽暫時事情條約、從事兼職事情。
斟酌到蓬勃國度的這類事情愈來愈多，日本為考核當大批勞動者以這類方法被邊沿化時會產生甚麽供給了一個高等案例。
那些在日本1990年股市崩盤以後錯過了畢生制飯碗的人，現在已40多歲了。
“有很多如許的人，他們在年青時沒找到事情，就廢棄了，如今已步入中年，”東京大學(University of Tokyo)傳授玄田有史(Yuji Genda)說。
日本今朝約有34萬位於職業盛年(35歲至44歲)的人不屬於勞動力生齒，這個數字為20年前的兩倍。“這已成為了一個緊張的社會題目，”他說。
玄田有史的研討凸顯了在勞動力市場糟時代卒業的日本門生所面對的極度遭受。在美國，假如高中卒業生在卒業時賦閑率高了1個百分點，那末他們的均勻收入會低3%。
在美國，這一劣勢在幾年以後就消逝了。但在日本，一樣的情形象征著，那些高中卒業生的均勻收入會低7%，十年多今後，他們的收入仍將低5%至7%。蒙受人為喪失打擊的是那些沒找到正規事情的人。
日本勞動力市場的南北極分解，不只令畢生就業軌制以外的人艱苦過活，並且也組成一個凸起的經濟題目。
國際泉幣基金構造(IMF)提出，暫時工的臨盆效力更低，由於他們的踴躍性更低，公司也不培訓他們。
IMF催促日本輔弼安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)把完全改造勞動力市場進步到優先地位，作為安倍經濟學“第三支箭”的構成部門。“第三支箭”是指安倍提出的旨在解脫通縮和提振增加的一系列構造性改造辦法。
經濟學家表現，日本國會(Diet)正在斟酌實行平和改造，好比讓公司依據事跡而不是事情時長給專業職員付出薪水，但經濟學家表現，這麽做將沒法沖破當前勞動力市場已構成的分解。
【參考譯文】
You get exactly one chance at success in the Japanese labour market, and as the world economy started to turn downwards in 2007, an 18-year-old Mr Takeda missed his.
His technical high school poured effort into matching its pupils with employers, but as a shy teenager in that year’s weak market, he was left without a job — and no way back. Mr Takeda, who does not want his full name published, describes what followed as six years of “black”.
“If you don’t get recruited first time around it’s extremely difficult,” says Mr Takeda, who couldn’t even get a part-time position. “I didn’t have any work experience. Once you have a blank period on your CV it’s extremely hard to get a job.”
Mr Takeda fell victim to the poisonous combination of a deflationary economy and Japan’s lifetime employment system. Lucky school and university leavers get a secure job for the rest of their career. Those who miss out enter a precarious limbo of temporary contracts and part-time work.
With this kind of work increasingly on the rise in developed countries, Japan is an advanced case study in what happens when a large group of workers is marginalised in this way.
Those who missed out on lifetime jobs in the aftermath of Japan’s 1990 stock market crash are now in their forties.
“There are many men who couldn’t find work when they were young, gave up, and they’re now in middle age,” says Yuji Genda, a professor at the University of Tokyo.
There are now around 340,000 Japanese men of prime working age, between 35 and 44 who are out of the labour force — double the level of 20 years ago. “It’s become a big social problem,” he says.
Mr Genda’s research highlights the extremity of what happens to Japanese students who graduate in a bad job market. In the US, if the unemployment rate is one percentage point higher at the time of graduation, a high school graduate earns 3 per cent less on average.
That disadvantage fades out after a few years. But in Japan, graduating in similar conditions means a 7 per cent wage hit on average, and more than a decade later students in that cohort will still be earning 5 to 7 per cent less. The brunt of that wage loss is borne by those who did not secure a regular job.
The polarisation of Japan’s labour market not only causes hardship for those on the wrong side of the lifetime system — it is also a significant economic problem.
The productivity of temporary staff is lower, the IMF argues, because they are less motivated and companies do not train them.
The fund has urged Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to prioritise overhauling the jobs market as part of the “third arrow” of Abenomics, his package of structural reforms designed to tackle deflation and boost growth.
The Diet, or parliament, is considering modest reforms, such as letting companies pay professional staff by results instead of hours worked, but nothing that would break down what has become a two-tier market, economists said.
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