Luxury jewellers face challenges on numerous fronts — but a battered gold price is not one of them, making the sector one of the few winners amid a global commodities rout.
The yellow metal had a long bull run at the beginning of the 21st century, steadily climbing from 1999 onwards and soaring after the financial crisis hit in 2008. However, the market had peaked by the end of 2011, and this summer began hitting multi-year lows, spurred by falling demand from China and India as well as by a strengthening dollar and the prospect of rising US interest rates.
Although gold prices began climbing again in August as investors grappled with a global equity sell-off, the price is still about 40 per cent down from its historic peak of $1,900.20 in May 2011.
How far in advance top jewellers purchase gold supplies varies, but the average across the industry is approximately one year. This means that although the beneficial effect of a lower gold price for the manufacturing side will not be felt immediately, it will still flatter margins eventually.
Swiss luxury goods group Richemont, owner of jewellers including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Piaget, says the cost of craftsmanship in assembling its $17,000 rings and $10,000 necklaces far outweighs the cost of the raw materials each piece requires.
Thomas Chauvet, an analyst at Citi, agrees. “While Richemont and Swatch will continue to benefit from lower gold prices, let’s not overestimate this impact,” he says.
Judged against where it was in 2008 and 2011, the gold price looks set to remain depressed for now, meaning jewellers should breathe a sigh of relief that commodities are not added to their list of headaches, which include currency gyrations, the push to reduce corruption and ostentatious gift-giving among Chinese officials — which has hit sales of fine watches — and a slowing Chinese economy. But there could yet be a worrying twist.
A big factor in the reduced gold price has been curtailed demand from China, a symptom of strain in the country’s economy. This is potentially making life for jewellers in that market increasingly difficult, even if the cost of producing goods is now slightly cheaper than it was five years ago.
Global gold demand dropped 12 per cent to 914.9 tonnes in the three months to June, a six-year low, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body. The fall was chiefly the result of weakness in the key markets of India and China. In the case of India, this was linked to seasonal factors, such as the small number of days considered lucky for a wedding, but for China the drop was caused by what is becoming a prolonged period of poor growth and stock market turmoil.
奢靡品珠寶商在許多範疇面對挑釁，但金價下跌並不是這些挑釁之一，反而讓奢靡操行業成為環球大批商品大跌中為數未幾的贏家之一。
從21世紀初開端，黃金一向位於歷久牛市。金價自1999年來穩步上漲，在2008年金融危急暴發以後大幅上漲。但是，金價在2011歲尾前見頂，在本年夏日開端屢創多年新低，暗地裏身分在於中國和印度需求的削減，和美元走強和美國加息預期。
只管因為投資者盡力應答環球股票兜售，金價在本年8月再次爬升，但當前金價仍比2011年5月創下的1990.20美元的汗青高點低了約40%。
頂級珠寶商提早多久購置黃金不盡雷同，但全行業均勻提早時光約為1年。這象征著，只管金價對臨盆商的利益不會連忙浮現，但終極仍將進步利潤率。
卡地亞(Cartier)、梵克雅寶(Van Cleef & Arpels)和伯爵(Piaget)等珠寶品牌的持有人、瑞士奢靡品團體歷峰(Richemont)表現，其1.7萬美元戒指和1萬美元項鏈的制造本錢遠遠跨越了每件商品所需原資料的本錢。
花旗(Citi)剖析師托馬阠偉(Thomas Chauvet)表現，“只管歷峰和斯沃琪(Swatch)將持續受益於金價下跌，但咱們不要太高估量這一影響。”
跟2008年和2011年的行情比擬，金價今朝仿佛會堅持在低程度上，象征著珠寶商應當會松一口吻了：大批商品並未進入他們的“頭疼清單”。令他們頭疼的題目包含泉幣顛簸、中國致力於襲擊官員腐爛和贈予奢華禮物的行為——這打擊了寶貴腕表的發賣——和中國經濟增加放緩。然則，大概還存在一個使人困擾的題目。
金價下跌暗地裏的一個主要身分是中國需求削弱，這恰是中國經濟承壓的一個征象。這大概讓中國市場上的珠寶商面對日趨艱苦的處境，即使現在的臨盆本錢比5年前略低。
行業機構天下黃金協會(World Gold Council)的數據表現，在停止6月的3個月內，天下黃金需求降低了12%，降至914.9噸的六年新低。這主如果癥結市場印度和中國需求疲弱的成果。至於印度，這跟季候性身分相幹，好比被以為合適娶親的日子很少;但對中國而言，這主如果歷久的經濟增加疲軟和股市動蕩而至。
市場價：HK$ 110
