阿裏巴巴遇冷 亞馬遜受寵

　　Jeff Bezos may run around Seattle, war paint daubed on his head, barking orders into his Fire Phone, urging employees to be nasty to each other.

　　The Amazon founder claims to be running a gentler company than his critics portray. But whatever he’s doing, investors like it a lot.

　　There was great fanfare in July when Amazon’s market capitalisation surpassed Walmart’s. There was none on Monday when its enterprise value, which discounts cash and includes debt, rose to $251bn, overtaking the supermarket chain to become — for real this time — the world’s most valuable retailer.

　　Earlier this year, its value overtook that of another company whose founder has magnetic appeal: Jack Ma’s Alibaba. Even though the Chinese ecommerce company enjoys superior revenue growth and fatter margins, its value is sinking. The first anniversary of its initial public offering was on Friday. The shares are below the IPO price and half their high point.

　　There are some good reasons for reappraising Alibaba, notably Chinese economic worries and the slowest revenue growth in three years recorded in August. Yet Alibaba’s return on invested capital is 8 per cent; Amazon’s is minus 3 per cent. Even at a slightly slower pace, Alibaba’s revenue is growing at 40 per cent against Amazon’s 17 per cent. It is Amazon, though, that now commands a premium valuation: its enterprise value is 20 times next year’s forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation compared with Alibaba at 19 times.

　　The suspension of disbelief in Alibaba has been punctured. A lock-up expired on Monday, enabling large investors (including Mr Ma) to sell. They said they would not. The stock still fell 3 per cent. Its strange governance structure and the precarious ways in which value trickles to common stockholders are all part of the problem, yet they are nothing new.

　　The worry that Alibaba might disappoint has taken hold; the worry that Amazon might disappoint has — in spite of its lengthy record of doing precisely that — vanished.

　　傑夫貝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)大概正鉚足了勁在西雅圖到處運動，為他家的Fire Phone高聲吆喝，並勉勵員工相互撕咬。

　　這位亞馬遜(Amazon)開創人宣稱，他謀劃的公司沒有批駁者描寫的那末冷淡。不外，豈論他在做的是甚麽，都深得投資者的歡心。

　　本年7月，當亞馬遜市值跨越沃爾瑪(Walmart)時，曾引發偉大驚動。而周一的另外一則新聞卻沒有引發涓滴的波濤：亞馬遜的企業代價(即是市值減去現金、加之債務)爬升至2510億美元，跨越了沃爾瑪，成為環球(名不虛傳的)最有代價的零售商。

　　本年早些時刻，該公司的市值跨越了另外一家其開創人有著磁石般吸引力的公司：馬雲的阿裏巴巴(Alibaba)。只管這家中國電子商務企業具有更高的營收增加率和更豐富的利潤率，它的市值卻在賡續縮水。上周五是阿裏巴巴初次公然招股(IPO)一周年懷念日。該公司股價今朝已低於刊行價，只有其汗青最高價的一半。

　　從新對阿裏巴巴估值不乏充足來由，特別是環繞中國經濟的擔心，和本年8月錄得3年來最慢營收增加。不外，阿裏巴巴的投入本錢回報率(ROIC)是8%，亞馬遜只有-3%。即使營收增速有所放緩，阿裏巴巴今朝的營收增速也有40%，而亞馬遜的這個數字為17%。但是，現在享有估值溢價的倒是亞馬遜：該公司市值是來歲估計息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的20倍，而阿裏巴巴的這一比例只有19倍。

　　對阿裏巴巴一度中止的疑惑再度規復。周一，阿裏巴巴股票消除禁售，令包含馬雲在內的該公司大股東可以或許兜售手中的股票。這些投資者此前表現，他們不會賣。固然如斯，該公司股價仍下跌了3%。阿裏巴巴獨特的管理構造，和其企業代價遲緩回饋通俗持股者的方法充斥不肯定性，都是其股票遇冷的緣故原由，但是這些並非新近才湧現的題目。

　　對阿裏巴巴大概令投資者絕望的擔心已然紮根，對亞馬遜大概令投資者絕望的擔心卻已消逝——只管亞馬遜歷久以來恰好在令投資者絕望。