To the upbeat strains of “Song of Bumper Crop”, farmers in South Hwanghae province this month performed dances to celebrate improving conditions in the North Korean countryside, “now turning into a good place to live and work thanks to...leadership of the Workers’ party”.
The festivities, as reported by the state news agency, were in keeping with the public agenda of supreme leader Kim Jong Un. During nearly four years in power he has emphasised economic progress, vowing that his people will never have to tighten their belts again, and has overseen agricultural policy reforms that prompted hopeful comparisons with Deng Xiaoping’s early experiments in China.
But the dancing party came at the outset of what looks set to be the worst harvest of Mr Kim’s reign, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, which is forecasting a 12 per cent year-on-year fall in rice production, with a 30 per cent decline in the smaller wheat and barley crops. “Kim Jong Un has had good harvests so far,” says one South Korean official. “This will be the first time he is squeezed.”
Severe drought followed by flooding has caused havoc in North Korea’s agricultural system this year, underscoring the continuing lack of food security, with the state cutting rations this summer to less than half the level needed for basic nutrition. The grim outlook has tempered optimism about the impact of agricultural reforms in recent years, as described to UN agencies by North Korean officials.
In June 2012, six months after Mr Kim took power, the state promulgated guidelines allowing smaller work teams on farms of as few as 10 people. Two years later, new guidelines declared that teams could now be as small as two households, and that they would be allowed to work the same plot for years at a time. Crucially, these changes have been combined with re昀漀爀洀猀 allowing teams to keep up to 70 per cent of what they produce instead of handing it to the state.
State media did not announce the changes but have referred to them. “The advantage of the ‘field responsibility’ system is that the workforce at each farm regards a small plot as their own,” Ji Myong Su, head of agriculture management research at Pyongyang’s Academy of Agricultural Science, told the state Tongil Sinbo newspaper in June. The speed of grain planting had doubled at the farms where the new system had been implemented, involving some teams as small as four people, he added.
Another change in 2014 was a dramatic increase in the maximum permitted size of “kitchen gardens”, from 100 to 3,300 square metres, which will encourage more private food production, says Cristina Coslet, an FAO official for east Asia. “I could see the difference between the fields and kitchen gardens [during a 2012 visit] — they look after [the latter] carefully and water them.”
Testimony from defectors and visitors to North Korea suggests that the reforms have been implemented in most agricultural communities but with wide differences between regions, says Kwon Tae-jin, head of North Korea research at Seoul’s GS & J Institute.
The changes are part of a long-term expansion of market dynamics in this supposedly planned economy since the famine of the mid-1990s, precipitated by years of under-investment in food production and the abrupt withdrawal of Soviet aid. The public food distribution system broke down, resulting in the starvation of hundreds of thousands, and forcing the survivors to turn to informal markets .
Even now, 70 per cent of North Koreans rely primarily on the public distribution system for food, the FAO estimates. But provision can be sporadic, and even the officially declared rations are well below the government’s nominal daily target of 573g of cereal equivalent per person: enough to provide the 2,000 calories widely seen as a minimum for good health. After bad rainfall hit this year’s spring harvest, the government cut the daily personal ration to just 250g.
The latest cuts, by far the most severe since Mr Kim took power, are set to compound a dire situation in much of the rest of the country. A 2012 UN survey found that more than a quarter of North Korean children under 5 had moderate or severe chronic malnutrition.
Even so, the reforms have provided a significant boost to productivity and helped mitigate the impact of this year’s drought, argues Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, noting that the 2013 harvest was the biggest for 25 years.
Yet by encouraging farmers to retain and sell their produce the government is continuing its dance with powerful market mechanisms that threaten to erode its authority, he says.
伴跟著《豐產之歌》的歡樂節拍，黃海南道(South Hwanghae)的農人們上月用跳舞演出歌唱朝鮮屯子的前提賡續改良，“現在這裏釀成一個生存和事情的好處所，多虧了……勞動黨的引導”。
官方通信社所報導的這些喜慶運動，與朝鮮最高首腦金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的公然議程同等。在朝近4年來，他誇大經濟成長，誓言讓朝鮮大眾永久再也不勒緊褲腰帶，並履行農業政策改造。這些辦法匆匆令人們將之與鄧小平昔時在中國開啟的試驗等量齊觀，令民氣生願望。
然則，就在農人們手舞足蹈之際，朝鮮仿佛將迎來金正恩掌權時代收獲最糟的秋收。據結合國糧農構造(FAO)猜測，朝鮮大米產量將同比下滑12%，較小作物小麥和大麥的產量將削減30%。“金正恩在朝這幾年收獲一向不錯，”一位韓國官員稱，“這將是他第一次遭到壓力。”
本年連續遭受的緊張旱災和大水，對朝鮮的農業體系造成緊張損壞，凸顯該國連續缺少食糧平安的實際，當局本年炎天將食糧配給下調至不敷保持根本養分所需攝取量的一半如下。朝鮮官員向結合國機構先容稱，暗淡的遠景挫傷了人們對比年農業改造後果的樂觀立場。
2012年6月，即金正恩上台6個月後，朝鮮頒布了指點目標——許可農場組建只有10人的臨盆小組。兩年後，新的指點目標宣告，臨盆小組可由僅僅兩個家庭構成，並且他們將被許可在統一塊地持續墾植數年。癥結是，這些轉變伴跟著許可臨盆小組保存最多70%收獲(而不是上繳國度)的改造辦法。
官方媒體並未宣告這些變更，但提到了相幹做法。“‘地盤義務制’的上風是每一個農場的勞動力都把小農田當做本身的地盤，”平壤農業科學研討院農業治理研討賣力人紀明洙(Ji Myong Su) 6月向官媒《同一新報》(Tongil Sinbo)表現。他彌補稱，在實行新軌制的農場中(包括一些4人小組)，種植谷物的速率加速了一倍。
2014年的另外一個變更是許可家庭菜園的面積上限戲劇性擴展，從100平米擴展至3300平米。結合國糧農構造賣力東亞的官員克裏斯蒂娜科斯利特(Cristina Coslet)稱，這將勉勵更多小我臨盆食品。“(2012年拜訪朝鮮時代)我可以看出農田和家庭菜園的差別——他們當心地照顧著(家庭菜園)，不忘卻澆水。”
首爾農業智庫——GS & J研討所朝鮮研討主管權泰金(Kwon Tae-jin)稱，潛逃者和拜訪過朝鮮的人士的證言仿佛註解，大多半農業社區都落實了這些改造，然則分歧地域之間存在較大差異。
上世紀90年月中期，朝鮮在食糧臨盆多年投資不敷和前蘇聯忽然割斷支援的配合感化下產生饑饉，以後朝鮮開端在其號稱的籌劃經濟中履行擴展市場活氣的歷久舉動，金正恩履行的改造是這項歷久盡力的一部門。饑饉時代，大眾食糧分派體系癱瘓，致使數十萬人餓死，幸存者不能不乞助於暗盤。
結合國糧農構造估量，縱然是如今，朝鮮70%的生齒仍舊重要依附大眾分派體系得到食品。然則，食品供給得不到保障，就連官方頒布的配給尺度也遠低於朝鮮當局劃定的逐日每人573克口糧的名義目的——被普遍以為是充足供給2000卡路裏以保持康健的最低攝取量。降雨偏少影響本年春收後，朝鮮當局將逐日每人配給尺度減少至僅僅250克。
這次配給下調絕對是自金正恩在朝以來最嚴格的，估計將加重朝鮮大片地域的糟景況。2012年一項結合國查詢拜訪發明，朝鮮5歲如下兒童中，四分之一以上存在中度或重度歷久養分不良。
首爾公民大學(Kookmin University)傳授安德烈瀠科夫(Andrei Lankov)以為，只管如斯，農業改造對臨盆率起到了明顯提振後果，有助於和緩本年旱災的影響。他指出2013年是朝鮮25年來收獲最佳的一年。
不外，蘭科夫稱，經由過程勉勵農人保存並發賣本身栽種的農產物，朝鮮當局正在持續與壯大的市場機制周旋，後者大概會腐蝕其威望。
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