11月4日口譯文章：中國銀行業輕松贏利的時期了結
利差收窄和不良貸款上升開端影響一度風景無窮的中國銀行業，中國“四大行”第三季度紅利受到進一步擠壓。
乏善可陳的財報季，表現出以中國工商銀行(ICBC)為首的四大行的運氣逆轉。2012年，這些銀行曾敏捷擴大，在資產範圍上令環球同業相形見拙。這匆匆使時任中國總理的溫家寶批評道，銀行“得到利潤太輕易了”。
跟著中國經濟放和緩利率去羈系化，上周宣布的第三季度事跡數據是銀行輕松贏利時期正在閉幕的最新跡象。第三季度，中國第四大銀行中國銀行(BoC)的凈利潤有記載以來初次同比降低，第二大銀行中國扶植銀行(CCB)的凈利潤則同比持平。
跟著中國完成利率去羈系化，凈利差(銀行借入和借出資金的利率之差)也在縮小。上月中國央行除降息之外，還宣告撤消存款利率浮動上限。曩昔兩年中，中國央行已慢慢放松這一上限。
多年來，存款利率上限加之貸款利率下限確保中國的銀行得到豐富的利潤。從2007年到2012年，四大行的總利潤從2500億元國民幣(合396億美元)增至7380億元國民幣(合1168億美元)。2013年，貸款利率下限被撤消。今朝，剖析師還不肯定銀行動爭取客戶資金會把存款利率舉高到何種水平。
“利率自由化首創了銀行業競爭白刃戰的新時期，”中信建投證券(CSCI)的剖析師楊榮上周寫道。
今朝，中國的銀行仍位居天下上最贏利的銀行之列。本年頭9個月，建行的股本回報率為19.5%，同比降低了近3個百分點，但仍然遠高於匯豐(HSBC)的10.6%。
跟著中國經濟放緩、制作業艱苦應答產能多余和價錢降低，銀行的不良貸款也在上升。
四大行的不良貸款都上升了，個中中國農業銀行(ABC)升幅最大，不良貸款率從6月尾的1.83%升至9月尾的2.02%。
剖析師指出，為將來不良貸款計提撥備的若幹扭曲了中國的銀行利潤。少提撥備會進步季度利潤，但若違約急劇上升，這也使資產欠債表落空了一部門抗壓才能。今朝有些銀行的撥備計提不如本來守舊。
“斟酌到不良貸款同比增加率到達了有史以來最高的73%，咱們以為(農行)本年逐一季度下降所計入的貸款減值喪失的政策其實不守舊，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)亞洲銀行業剖析師詹姆斯褠塛斯(James Antos)表現。
依據最新的當局數據，在停止本年6月的一年裏，全部銀行業的不良貸款增長3980億元國民幣，至1.1萬億元國民幣。人們疑惑，範圍較小、未上市銀行的不良貸款題目更加緊張。據官方數據，6月尾屯子貿易銀行的不良貸款率為2.2%。
很多剖析師疑惑中國官方不良貸款數據的真實性，以為銀行大概經由過程對過期貸款舉行展期大概延期遮蓋違約情形。
【參考譯文】
Profits at China’s four-biggest banks were further squeezed in the third quarter, as shrinkinginterest margins and rising bad loans took their toll on the once high-flying sector.
The lacklustre reporting season is a sharp reversal for the banks, led by Industrial andCommercial Bank of China, which in 2012 ballooned to eclipse global peers in terms of assets.That prompted then-premier Wen Jiabao to comment that the banks “make profits far tooeasily”.
Third-quarter earnings data released last week are the latest sign that the era of easy profits isending as China’s economy slows and interest rates are deregulated. Net profit at Bank ofChina, the country's fourth-largest lender, fell in the third quarter for the first time on record,while profit was flat at China Construction Bank, the second largest.
Net interest margins, the spread between the rates at which banks borrow and lend money,are shrinking as China completes interest rate deregulation. Alongside an interest-rate cut lastmonth, the central bank said that it was eliminating the cap on deposit rates. The move followeda gradual loosening of the cap over the past two years.
The combination of a cap on deposit rates and a floor on lending rates for years ensured fatmargins for Chinese banks. Combined profits at the big four banks rose from Rmb250bn($39.6bn) in 2007 to Rmb738bn ($116.8bn) five years later. The loan-rate floor was eliminatedin 2013. Analysts are undecided on the extent to which banks will now begin to raise depositrates as they compete for customer funds.
“Interest-rate liberalisation is ushering in a new era of hand-to-hand combat for the bankingsector,” Yang Rong, analyst at China Securities, wrote last week.
For now, Chinese banks remain among the most profitable in the world. Return on equity atCCB was 19.5 per cent in the first nine months of the year, down nearly 3 percentage pointsfrom the year before but still comfortably ahead of HSBC at 10.6 per cent.
Bad loans are also rising as the economy slows and China’s manufacturing sector struggles withovercapacity and falling prices.
Non-performing loans rose at all four major Chinese banks, with Agricultural Bank of Chinasuffering the largest jump, to 2.02 per cent of total assets at the end of September from 1.83per cent three months earlier.
Analysts note that headline profits at Chinese banks are skewed by the share of profits setaside as provisions against future bad loans. Less provisioning boosts quarterly profits butmakes the balance sheet less resilient if defaults rise sharply. Some banks are now provisioningless conservatively.
“Considering that the NPL growth rate reached a new all-time high of 73 per cent year-on-year,we feel [AgBank’s] policy of reducing impairments to loans in each successive quarter this yearis not conservative,” wrote James Antos, Asia banks analyst at Mizuho Securities.
For the banking system as a whole, bad loans rose by Rmb398bn in the year to June toRmb1.1tn, according to the latest government figures. The bad-loan problem is suspected tobe more serious at small, unlisted banks. The official NPL ratio at rural commercial banks was2.03 per cent at end-June.
Many analysts doubt the veracity of China’s official NPL figures, suspecting that lendersconceal delinquencies by rolling over or extending overdue loans.
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