12月18日口譯文章：國民幣中央價降至4年來低點
在中國央行(PBoC)表現將針對一籃子泉幣視察國民幣匯率後的頭一個生意業務日，國民幣兌美元匯率在中國海內市場的生意業務中滑落至新的四年內低點。
周五晚些時刻，中國央行引入了按生意業務加權的泉幣籃子，個中美元所占權重為26.4%，歐元權重為21.4%。新聞傳來，倫敦市場生意業務的離岸國民幣匯率敏捷跌落0.5%，跌至1美元兌6.5577元國民幣的四年內低點。
本年8月，國民幣曾忽然貶值3%，激發的打擊波傳遍了環球市場，並匆匆使美聯儲推延了9月份預期中的加息。自當時以來，中國央行對國民幣匯率的治理一向遭到人們的親密存眷。
而周五的舉動則出如今美聯儲預期加息時光點以前不到一周，此次加息將是美聯儲9年內初次加息。中國央行此舉被說明為進步透明度的更大層面盡力的一部門。
美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)新興市場亞洲計謀師克勞迪奧皮龍(Claudio Piron)表現：“咱們以為，此舉其實不即是要明白轉向將國民幣匯率與一籃子泉幣掛鉤。相反，他們聲明的語氣表示咱們，他們試圖將市場對雙邊利率機制的過分存眷轉移開來，轉向幾種泉幣籃子考核機制。”
周一，中國央即將國民幣兌美元逐日匯率中央價定為1美元兌6.4495元國民幣，比周五的匯率低了0.21%，是四年來的最低點。這是中國當局持續第六天下降參考匯率。
今朝，中國海內市場的國民幣匯率許可在該中央價左右各2%的規模內顛簸。
離岸市場則沒有這類限定，在閱歷周五尾盤時的反彈以後，離岸國民幣匯率在早盤時已下跌，至1美元兌6.5491元國民幣。
比來幾周，二者之間的差距已拉大，註解投資者正押註於國民幣會進一步疲軟。
依據中國國際金融有限公司(CICC,簡稱中金)的數據，客歲美元觸及全部中國海內市場外匯生意業務的95%。不外，環球重要經濟體的泉幣政策之間的不合賡續增大，加大了中國治理國民幣匯率的難度。
只管市場已預備好歡迎美國進步利率，中國、歐洲和日本估計仍會采用進一步的寬松政策。
中金公司計謀師余茂發表現，泉幣籃子的引入是“各經濟體間不合的必定成果”，它將令央行能更好地計劃與市場的相同。
亞洲其他國度正親密存眷國民幣的動向，以防其走弱行情腐蝕它們的競爭力——只管因為本年美元已走強，國民幣與美元間仍非常親密的幹系象征著中國並未享遭到提振出口的利益。
【參考譯文】
The renminbi slipped to a fresh four-year low against the US dollar in its first day of onshore trading since the People’s Bank of China said it would measure the exchange rate against a broader basket of currencies.
China’s central bank introduced the trade-weighted basket, in which the dollar accounts for 26.4 per cent and the euro 21.4 per cent, late on Friday. The offshore renminbi promptly dropped 0.5 per cent in London trading, pushing the currency to Rmb6.5577 against the dollar, a four-year low.
The PBoC’s management of the renminbi has been under scrutiny since August, when a botched 3 per cent devaluation sent shockwaves through world markets and prompted the Federal Reserve to hold off on an expected increase in US interest rates in September.
Friday’s move, coming less than a week before the Fed is expected to raise rates for the first time in nine years, was interpreted as part of a broader effort by the PBoC to be more transparent.
“We believe that it does not equate to an explicit shift to targeting the renminbi against a basket of currencies,” said Claudio Piron, emerging Asia strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The tone of their statement, instead, suggests to us they are trying to shift the market’s heavy focus away from the bilateral rate to several basket measures.”
On Monday the PBoC set the daily “fix” against the dollar at Rmb6.4495, down 0.21 per cent from Friday’s rate and a four-year low. It was the sixth successive day that Beijing has set a weaker reference rate.
The onshore rate is permitted to trade up to 2 per cent either side of that midpoint.
The offshore rate, which has no such restrictions, was at Rmb6.5491 per dollar, having weakened in early trading after a late recovery on Friday.
The spread between the two has risen in recent weeks, indicating investors are betting on further weakness ahead.
The dollar was involved with 95 per cent of all onshore foreign exchange transactions last year, according to CICC, but the growing divergence between monetary policy in the world’s major economies has increased the difficulty for China in managing its currency.
Even as markets brace for higher US interest rates, policy in China, Europe and Japan is still expected to be eased further.
Xiangrong Yu, strategist at CICC, said the introduction of a basket was “a necessary result of the divergence between the economies” and would allow the PBoC to better frame its communication with the markets.
Other countries in Asia are closely watching what happens with the renminbi for fear its weaker path could erode their competitiveness, even though the currency’s still-close links with its US counterpart mean China has not benefited from an export boost as the dollar has rallied this year.
市場價：HK$ 110
