1月6日口譯文章：美國那邊創業最活潑 New York steals Silicon Valley's crown
假如你想在比來美國某個企業的季候性派對上沖破冷場局勢，可以試著問一下這個會裸露本相的題目：美國那邊的創業人士比例最高?
“矽谷”大概是可以預感也能夠懂得的謎底。究竟，近年這個舊金山地域已成為美國立異的核心腸帶。Facebook開創人馬克丠克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)仿佛是創業夢的意味——特別是自從他比來宣告籌劃捐出多半產業用於社會慈善奇跡以來。
不外，本日的美國經濟中卻存在一個奇異的細節：假如你想懂得創業運動的真正特色，不要把眼力放在矽谷或紮克伯格身上。依據智庫考夫曼基金會(Kauffman Foundation)的研討，以人均小企業數盤算，現在都會創業的最大溫床是紐約而不是西海岸。以“創業”而言，波士頓位居第二位，排在厥後的是羅得島州的普羅維登斯。同時，舊金山排在第四位，在佛羅裏達州的邁阿密和俄勒岡州的波特蘭以前。紐約緬街(Main Street)正向矽谷提議嚴格挑釁。
地輿地位不是獨一使人驚奇的地方。“始創”一詞每每會讓人腦筋中顯現出像紮克伯格如許一臉稚氣、身穿連帽衫的年青人形象。但是考夫曼基金會的數據卻表現，創業者和小企業主的均勻年紀不但要高很多，並且還在賡續上升。32%的小企業由年紀在45歲到54歲之間的人士持有，而小企業恰是經濟運動和創培養業的發念頭。
這些中年創業者是企業主中最大的群體。比擬之下，追隨厥後的20到34歲群體(紮克伯格地點的群體)只具有16%的小企業，大大低於1997年該系列查詢拜訪開端時28%的比例。較年青群體的創業運動也在削減，而中年人創業運動卻在增長。與此同時，創業者的受教導水平也在上升：現在多半人具有研討生學位。別的，今朝外來移民持有全部小企業中的20%，是1997年的兩倍。
對付這些趨向應當若何說明?有關整體的小企業運動的數據(特別是有關創業運動的數據)是出了名地七拼八湊。不外，考夫曼基金會表現，門生債務的繁重累贅大概正在妨害年青人走上創業途徑。從更大的層面上說，美國生齒的老化也在影響這一統計成果。
更風趣的題目是，創業者的高齡化趨向是不是也反應了就業模式的變更。數字化正在致使大批曾很穩固的中產階層企業事情崗亭消逝，將中年員工拋出企業。究竟上，牛津大學馬丁學院(Oxford Martin School)估計，在往後20年內，美國折半事情崗亭將由機械人代替。美國人的壽命正在增長，他們的養老金卻在縮水。換句話說，這類中年創業運動的一部門既多是自立選取，也多是必不得已——這不但是經濟自由的成果，一樣也是經濟不穩固的成果。
反過來講，這大概會帶來更大的政策上的啟發——特別是斟酌到收入不屈等的賡續加重。在這些數據中，一個使人鼓動的新聞是，在閱歷了金融危急時代的下滑以後，客歲創業運動整體增長了。然則，它仍然低於幾十年前的程度。不外，今朝美國政策制訂者有很多方法可以進步創業運動的程度。
不該該僅僅談及減輕大企業的稅負(這恰是華盛頓爭辯會合的範疇)，而應當將更多盡力用於精簡美國惡夢般龐雜的小企業稅法。醫療保險的供給也應當簡化。別的，小企業還須要有更多融資渠道，特別是由於，2008年後金融改造致使的一個異常不幸的效果是，銀行現在異常不肯意為範圍較小的企業供給資金。
別的，文化上的變更也是需要的。最值得留意的是，美國政策制訂者(和選民)須要熟悉到，不是本日全部勝利的創業者都穿戴連帽衫，大概洗澡在加利福尼亞州的陽光下。相反，多半人不是如許。為應答傳統企業崗亭的消逝或中產階層支離破碎的咒罵，想方法倡導和支撐較年長的群體創業也將是癥結的一步。這也會讓經濟加倍康健，季候性派對的氛圍加倍輕松高興。
【參考譯文】
If you want to break the ice at a corporate seasonal party in America these days, try popping this revealing question: which part of the US has the highest proportion of entrepreneurship?
“Silicon Valley” would be a predictable, and understandable, answer. After all, in recent years, the San Francisco region has been an epicentre of US innovation. Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, seems to epitomise the entrepreneurial dream; particularly since his recent announcement that he plans to donate most of his largesse to social causes.
But here is a curious little detail of America’s economy today: if you want to understand the real nature of entrepreneurial activity, do not look to Silicon Valley or Mr Zuckerberg. The biggest hotbed of urban entrepreneurship, as measured by the number of small companies per head, is now New York, not the West Coast, according to research by the Kauffman Foundation, a think-tank. Boston sits in second place in terms of “entrepreneurship”, followed by Providence, Rhode Island. Meanwhile, San Francisco is fourth, just ahead of Miami in Florida and Portland in Oregon. Main Street is giving the Valley more than a run for its money.
Geography is not the only surprise. The word “start-up” tends to conjure up images of baby-faced, hoody-wearing youngsters such as Mr Zuckerberg. But the Kauffman data suggest that the average age of entrepreneurs and small business owners is far higher — and rising. People aged 45-54 now own 32 per cent of small businesses, the engines of economic activity and job creation.
These middle-aged entrepreneurs are the biggest single cohort among business owners. Those following on behind, the 20-34 year olds — Mr Zuckerberg’s cohort — own just 16 per cent of small businesses, down from 28 per cent when the series started in 1997. Start-up activity among the younger cohort is also falling, as it increases among the middle aged. Meanwhile, the educational qualifications of entrepreneurs is rising: a majority now hold a graduate degree. And immigrants now own 20 per cent of all small businesses, twice the level in 1997.
What accounts for these trends? Data on small business activity in general — and entrepreneurship in particular — are notoriously patchy. However, Kauffman suggests that the heavy burden of 猀琀甀攙攀渀琀 debt may be deterring young people from becoming entrepreneurs. The broader ageing of the American population is also affecting the 猀琀愀琀椀猀琀椀挀猀.
The more intriguing issue is whether the pattern of older entrepreneurs also reflects the changing profile of work. Digitisation is wiping out swaths of once-secure middle-class corporate jobs, tossing out middle-aged employees; indeed, the Oxford Martin school of business forecasts that half of all US jobs will be replaced by robots in the next two decades. Americans are living longer and their pension provision is shrinking. Some of this middle-aged entrepreneurial activity, in other words, is probably sparked by necessity as much as by active choice — a consequence of economic insecurity as well as economic freedom.
That, in turn, may have bigger policy implications, particularly given the 爀椀猀椀渀最 level of income inequality. One encouraging piece of news in the data is that overall entrepreneurship rose last year, after declining during the
Great Financial Crisis. But it remains below the levels seen a couple of decades ago. There is a great deal that Amer-ican 瀀漀氀椀挀礀洀愀欀攀爀猀 could do now, however, to raise those entrepreneurship levels.
Instead of just talking about lowering taxes for big corporations (which is where the debate is focused in Washington), there should be more effort made to streamline America’s nightmarishly complex small business tax code. Healthcare provision should also be simplified. Small business also requires a wider range of financing channels, particularly since one very unfortunate consequence of the post-2008 financial reforms is that banks are now very unwilling to provide funding for smaller companies.
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