投資者需調低徊報預期 Markets in for slower and bumpier climb
Markets favour clarity and while clarity seems easywith hindsight, it’s rarely as stress-free when looking ahead.
市場愛好清楚;固然過後來看有些工作不言而喻，但在瞻望將來時卻很少會那末毫無壓力地看得清晰。
It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition formarkets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions arebumpy. As an investor, it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrongabout a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money tostay invested.
風趣的是，人們怎樣會忘卻這一點，特別是在市場和宏觀經濟遷移轉變之際。咱們今朝正在遷移轉變時代，而遷移轉變是波動的。作為一位投資者，主要的是肯定某一條路徑準確與否的潛伏影響。永久不該疑惑的是，歷久資金有需要連續投資。
We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher thannormal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of theinvestment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors have come to expect froman ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Returnexpectations need to be managed lower.
自金融危急以來，咱們已看到有多年獲得了兩位數的強勁回報。跨越正常程度的回報率釀成了人們盼望的常態，這是不該該的。咱們進入了這個投資周期的末期，實際地講，它供給的清楚度不如投資者對一個年老的牛市發生的預期。遠景不錯，但並不是特殊好，而危害已上升。回報預期有需要被調低。
Global growth slowed last year, stalled by emerging economies. The US and China are thefoundation economies for sustainable moderate global growth. We do not believe that theUS or China will fall into recession in 2016. China falling into recession would, in our opinion, bemore damaging to global growth than a more aggressive path of Fed tightening.
客歲環球增加因為新興經濟體的拖累而放緩。美國和中國事環球可連續適度增加的基本經濟體。咱們以為美國和中國不會在2016年墮入闌珊。在咱們看來，中國墮入闌珊對環球增加的損壞將跨越美聯儲(Fed)走上更加激進的收緊政策之路。
The US is furthest along in expansion, with Europe and Japan in recovery but clearlydisappointing in momentum. Emerging markets are recovering from a credit crunch and anoverextended investment boom. We have had meaningful debate about whether emergingmarkets will be the tipping point that stalls the global economy in 2016. While not our basecase, we remain concerned that there may be additional spillover effects from developingeconomies that can weigh again on global markets.
美國在經濟擴大的路上走得最遠，歐洲和日本正在蘇醒，但明顯在勢頭方面使人絕望。新興市場正在從信貸危急和過分的投資高潮中蘇醒。咱們已就新興市場會不會是2016年拖累環球經濟的引爆點舉行了故意義的爭辯。咱們仍然擔憂，成長中經濟體大概發生更多的溢出效應，再度拖累環球市場，只管這並不是咱們的基準猜測。
Should commodity market rebalancing get worse, the non-linear effects of lower commodityprices may lead to a significant rise in financial stress, defaults and possible contagion. LatinAmerica, the Middle East and Africa stand out as ongoing concerns. Asia continues to lookbetter positioned to navigate the year ahead but we expect local currency markets to be agreat deal more volatile and pressured. Fed tightening and China’s response via currencydepreciation will be the drivers.
假如大批商品市場的再均衡惡化，大批商品價錢下跌的非線性效應大概致使金融壓力明顯上升、違約，另有大概舒展。拉美、中東和非洲連續使人擔心。亞洲持續有望在將來一年位於比擬有益的位置，但咱們估計本地匯市將會激烈顛簸，並蒙受偉大壓力。推進身分將是美聯儲收緊政策和中國經由過程貶值來應答。
It’s easy to point to the drumbeat for Fed tightening as the culprit behind challenging equitymarkets. In reality, high valuations, as well as disappointing sales and earnings, have more todo with it. While we are not overly concerned about current valuation levels, returns need tobe driven by earnings growth.
人們很輕易將美聯儲收緊政策的軍號視為股市低迷的禍首罪魁。現實上，高估值和使人絕望的發賣數據和利潤的身分更大一些。只管咱們沒有過分擔心當前的估值程度，但回報率須要獲得利潤增加的推進。
Earnings dispersion remains an important driver of sector returns but the year ahead is goingto be more nuanced and company-specific. That should favour active managers.
紅利的分離性還是詳細行業回報的主要推進身分，但將來一年的差異將加倍精致，要詳細剖析特定公司的情形，這應當有益於自動型基金司理。
It is central to note that portfolio diversification becomes more important the later we get ina cycle — there is less of a value cushion to allow for being wrong. That puts greater emphasison the need for diversification of investment risk across a portfolio. Asset allocation, at itscore, is about measuring and managing investment risk. The further along in a cycle, the moreimportant it becomes.
有需要指出的是，越位於投資周期的末期，疏散投資就越主要——許可出錯的代價緩沖削減了。這象征著在投資組合中加倍重視疏散投資危害。資產設置裝備擺設的焦點內在便是權衡和治理投資危害。一個周期越靠近末期，資產設置裝備擺設就越主要。
Investors should expect low single-digit returns from fixed income and, hopefully, mid-to-highsingle-digit returns from equity markets. Equity market returns will be driven by earningsgrowth and dividends. If earnings disappoint, valuations will be under pressure as investorsdemand a higher risk premium for a less certain earnings stream. That will lower returns. Alack of clarity is discounted by markets in the form of higher risk premia — whether widercredit spreads or lower equity multiples.
投資者的預期應當是從牢固收益得到較小的個位數回報，從股市得到較高的個位數回報。股市回報將遭到利潤增加和股息的推進。假如利潤使人絕望，估值將會承壓，由於投資者請求對不那末肯定的利潤流得到更高的危害溢價。這將下降回報率。缺少清楚度被市場以危害溢價上升的情勢計入——不管是信貸息差擴展照樣股市市盈率下降。
Across portfolios we are overweight global equities and alternative investments versus fixedincome. Coming into 2016, the size of our equity overweight versus benchmarks is lower. Weare overweight developed equity markets, avoiding emerging markets for now and continue toinvest in hedge funds across portfolios that can own them. We currently hold no directinvestment allocations to commodities.
在全部投資組合中，咱們在環球股市和另類投資上超配，牢固收益上低配。進入2016年之際，咱們在股市的超配水平降低。咱們如今在蓬勃國度的股市超配，臨時躲避新興市場，並持續在可以具有對沖基金的投資組合中投資於對沖基金。咱們今朝沒有直接的大批商品投資。
Market and macro expansions tend to run longer and we believe we’ve entered the later stagesof the investment cycle, an important transition point. The path of least resistance formarkets is to move higher — but at a slower and bumpier pace.
市場和宏觀經濟擴大的周期每每較長，咱們信任如今已進入了投資周期的末期，這是一個主要的遷移轉變點。對市場來講，阻力最小的路徑是向上走，但措施將更加遲緩和曲折。
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