香港與內地經濟聯系趨弱

　　香港與要地本地經濟接洽趨弱 Hong Kong and China weakening link

　　香港的運氣被以為與中國要地本地風雨同舟。但是，“亞洲國際都邑”(Asia’s World City)和其北方的增加引擎之間的接洽正變得軟弱。

　　上周四，博柏利(Burberry)和歷峰(Richemont)申報中國要地本地發賣好過預期。這一好氣象沒有延長至香港。博柏利在香港和澳門的發賣降低五分之一;歷峰的香港營收“明顯”降低。香港珠寶商周大福(Chow Tai Fook)的事跡也欠好。更糟的是，壞新聞還不但限於奢靡品——中國反腐爛奮斗的受害者。一樣在上周四，打扮零售商堡獅龍(Bossini)表現，客歲下半年利潤降低80%至90%。該公司將糟事跡歸罪於要地本地來港旅客削減和當地情感低迷。客歲11月，要地本地來港旅客人數同比降低16%，這是12個月以來的最大降幅;該月零售發賣降低了8%。

　　負面情感大概會連續。本月，某書店(該書店發賣關於中國共產黨的圖書)的一位員工失落，重燃了港人對要地本地的反感。鑒於要地本地旅客占香港旅客總數的四分之三以上，這類反感舉足輕重。

　　固然，香港經濟不但限於旅行和購物。這個特殊行政區照樣境外機構向中國供給辦事的管道，它也得益於此。但是，縱然是在這些傳統的香港剛強上，要地本地也大概正在趕超。瑞銀(UBS)表現，將把在華員工增長一倍。新增職員將有很大一部門在要地本地。香港經濟將迎來更多暗淡日子。

　　【參考譯文】

　　Hong Kong’s fortunes are believed to rise and fall with those of China. Yet the link between “Asia’s World City” and its northern engine of growth is becoming tenuous.

　　On Thursday, Burberry and Richemont said sales in China were better than expected. The glow did not extend to Hong Kong. Burberry’s sales there and in Macau were down a fifth; Richemont’s revenues in the southern city fell “significantly”. Hong Kong jeweller Chow Tai Fook had bad numbers, too. Worse, the bad news extends beyond luxury — a victim of China’s war against corruption. Also on Thursday Bossini, an apparel retailer, said second-half profits fell between 80 and 90 per cent. It blamed fewer mainland visitors to Hong Kong and weak local sentiment. November tourist arrivals from China fell 16 per cent on the year, the fastest pace in 12 months; retail sales were down 8 per cent for the month.

　　Negative sentiment is likely to persist. This month’s disappearance of a seller of books about China’s Communist Party has resurrected antipathy towards the mainland. With that constituency accounting for more than three-quarters of all visitors, its alienation is significant.

　　Of course, Hong Kong’s economy is more than tourism and shopping. It has also benefited as the conduit for international services to China. Yet, even in these traditional strongholds, China may be pulling ahead. UBS said it would double its staff in China. Much of that headcount will be north of the border. Hong Kong’s economy has more dark days ahead.