人工智能和機器人可能釀成大規模失業

　　Scientists have warned that rapid strides in thedevelopment of artificial intelligence and roboticsthreatens the prospect of mass unemployment, affecting everyone from drivers to sexworkers.

　　科學家們告誡稱，人工智能和機械人技巧的快步成長大概變成大範圍賦閑，影響從司機到性事情者的各行各業勞動者。

　　Intelligent machines will soon replace human workers in all sectors of the economy, seniorcomputer scientists told the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting inWashington at the weekend.

　　周末在華盛頓舉辦的美國科學增進會(AAAS)集會上，資深盤算機科學家表現，智能機械很快將在各個經濟部分代替人類勞動者。

　　“We are approaching the time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost anytask,” said Moshe Vardi, computer science professor at Rice University in Texas. “Society needsto confront this question before it is upon us: if machines are capable of doing almost anywork humans can do, what will humans do?

　　“咱們正在靠近如許一個時候，機械將可以或許在險些全部義務上超出人類，”德克薩斯州萊斯大學(RiceUniversity)盤算機科學傳授摩西瓦迪(Moshe Vardi)表現，“在這個時候光降以前，社會須要直面一個題目：假如人類可以或許做的事情，機械險些都可以或許做，那末人類該做些甚麽?

　　“A typical answer is that we will be free to pursue leisure activities,” Prof Vardi said. “[But] I donot find the prospect of leisure-only life appealing. I believe that work is essential to humanwellbeing.”

　　“一個典範的答復是，咱們將自由地從事休閑運動，”瓦迪傳授表現，“然則我不認為只有休閑的人生遠景有吸引力。我信任工尷尬刁難於人類的福祉是弗成或缺的。”

　　“AI is moving rapidly from academic research into the real world,” said Bart Selman, professorof computer science at Cornell University. “Computers are starting to ‘hear’ and ‘see’ ashumans do...匠礀猀琀攀洀猀 can start to move and operate among us autonomously.” He saidcompanies such as Google, Facebook, IBM and Microsoft were scaling up investments in AIsystems to billions of dollars a year.

　　“人工智能正從學術研討快速進入實際天下，”康奈爾大學(Cornell University)盤算機科學傳授巴特帠爾曼(Bart Selman)表現，“盤算機正開端像人類同樣‘聽’和‘看’……體系可以自立地挪動和操縱，躋身於人類行列。”他表現，谷歌(Google)、Facebook、IBM和微軟(Microsoft)等公司紛紜加大對人工智能體系的投資，使其到達每年紀十億美元。

　　Professors Vardi and Selman said governments — and society as a whole — were not facing upto the acceleration of AI and robotics research. Prof Selman helped draft an open letter issuedlast year by the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, urging policymakers toexplore the risks associated with increasingly intelligent machines.

　　瓦迪傳授和塞爾曼傳授都表現，當局和全部社會沒有重視人工智能和機械人研討的加快。塞爾曼傳授客歲曾贊助草擬由馬薩諸塞州劍橋的性命將來研討所(Future of Life Institute)發出的一封公然信，催促政策制訂者探察智能含量愈來愈高的機械所帶來的危害。

　　Among the 10,000 or so signatories to the letter is Elon Musk, the tech entrepreneur whosecompany Tesla Motors has a large AI research programme aimed at developing self-driving cars.

　　這封公然信有約莫1萬人署名，包含高科技企業家埃隆氠斯克(Elon Musk)，他旗下的特斯拉汽車公司(TeslaMotors)有一個大範圍人工智能研討項目，旨在開辟主動駕駛汽車。

　　Mr Musk will fund research at Cornell University “on keeping AI beneficial to humans”, said ProfSelman. The project will predict whether and, if so when, “super-intelligence” — all-roundsuperiority of machine to human intelligence — might be achieved.

　　塞爾曼傳授說，馬斯克將贊助康奈爾大學以“確保人工智能造福於人類”為課題的研討。該項目將猜測“超等智能”(機械相對人類聰明的全方位上風)可否實現?假如謎底是確定的，它將在什麽時候實現?

　　According to Prof Selman, one of the fastest advancing areas of AI is machine vision, andparticularly facial recognition. “Facebook can recognise faces better than any of us,” he said.Machine vision is key to the self-driving vehicles that scientists predict will take over our roadsin the next 25 years. Prof Vardi said automated driving would cut accidents by 90 per cent ormore, compared with vehicles driven by error-prone people.

　　據塞爾曼傳授先容，人工智能希望最快的範疇之一是機械視覺，特別是人臉辨認。“Facebook辨認人臉的才能比任何人類都更好，”他說。機械視覺是主動駕駛汽車的癥結;科學家們猜測，此類車輛將在將來25年連續上路。瓦迪傳授稱，比擬輕易失足的人類司機，主動駕駛將削減90%或更多的變亂。

　　“With so many lives saved and injuries prevented, it would be hard morally for anyone to argueagainst it,” he said. Yet around 10 per cent of all US jobs involve driving a vehicle, he added, “and most of those will disappear”.

　　“假如可以或許救濟那末多性命，防備那末多受傷，否決者在品德大將會很難說得曩昔，”他說。但是，他彌補說，美國10%上下的事情崗亭觸及駕駛車輛，“這些事情崗亭中的大多半將會消逝”。

　　Prof Vardi said it would be hard to think of any jobs that would not be vulnerable to roboticsand AI — even sex workers. “Are you going to bet against sex robots?” he asked. “I’m not.”

　　瓦迪傳授稱，面臨日臻完美的機械人技巧和人工智能，很難想象有任何事情不會面對消逝危害，就連性事情者也不破例。“你會賭博性機械人弗成能風行嗎?”他問道，“橫豎我不會。”