Two-plus years of a near-unbroken rally and amarket may perhaps be forgiven for a pullback —unless that market is in China, where the sharpestmonthly jump in bond yields since the rally beganhas prompted worries another mainland boom looksto be on borrowed time.
假如一個市場兩年多來險些接二連三地上漲，那末回調一下也無可非議，除非這個市場是在中國——中國債券收益率湧現了自此輪牛市啟動以來的最大月度漲幅，這令一些人擔憂中國要地本地的又一場繁華看起來已光陰無多。
Concerns about a rise in defaults, excess leverage and doubts about the likelihood of moremonetary easing has sapped investor appetite and overshadowed China’s massive bondmarket.
債務違約增多激發的擔心、太高的杠桿、再加長進一步出台泉幣寬松政策的大概性存疑，令投資者的興致日減，並為中國宏大的債券市場蒙上了暗影。
A series of defaults and near-defaults by state-owned enterprises (SOE) have dominatedattention since SOE’s government backing had, until now, been considered a guarantee ofprompt and full payment. Last month. two SOEs missed scheduled bond payments, while athird suspended trading of its notes and warned it would struggle to make a payment duethis month.
一系各國企違約和近乎違約的事宜已成為人們存眷的核心，之以是這麽說，是由於迄今為止，國企得到的當局支撐一向被視為其債券獲得實時全額兌付的包管。上月，兩家國企未能定期兌付債券，別的另有一家國企停息其債券生意業務並提示市場本身將很難兌付本月到期的債券。
Rising yields, which move inversely with price, have deterred other borrowers, with corporateissuance halving to Rmb641bn last month from its rate in March, according to data from WindInformation.
收益率(與價錢走勢相反)賡續上升令其他乞貸者退縮不前，萬得資訊(Wind Information)的數據表現，與3月份比擬，上月企業債券刊行量縮減了一半，至6410億元國民幣。
Yields on benchmark five-year government bonds rose from 2.47 per cent at the start of Aprilto 2.8 per cent last week — a three-month high, and their sharpest one-month move sinceNovember 2013.
基準的5年期國債收益率從4月初的2.47%升至上周的2.8%，創下3個月來的高點，這一月度更改幅度也是自2013年11月以來最大的。
Crucially, the difference or risk premium between government borrowing yields and those paidby low-rated companies widened to a four-month high, illustrating growing concern of hardlanding beckoning for the market.
癥結是，國債收益率和那些低評級企業債券的收益率之間的差額(即危害溢價)擴展至4個月來的高點，註解人們愈來愈擔憂債券市場的硬著陸危害。
Bankers, however, play down the risk that defaults could cause a wider panic.
但銀內行們其實不以為這些違約有較大大概激發更大的驚恐。
“To me this is a healthy repricing that we’ve seen,” says Beng Hong Lee, head of China marketsat Deutsche Bank. “Look across China and for a long time defaults have been extremely low.That has resulted in mispricing of risk and the expectations that the government or a bank willcome to the rescue.”
德意誌銀行(Deutsche Bank)中國市場營業賣力人李民宏(Beng Hong Lee)表現：“對我來講，咱們看到的是一種康健的從新訂價。縱觀整其中國，歷久以來違約案例極其少見，這造成為了危害的毛病訂價，並使得人們預期當局或銀行終極會脫手相救。”
The upward pressure on yields has occurred as China prepares to open its bond markets tooutside investors via a new scheme that eases access. The mainland is already the third-largestdebt market in the world, with some $7tn outstanding, yet foreigners hold less than 2 percent. Bankers are sanguine that April’s storms will not deter the kind of long-term investmentBeijing is keen to attract.
在債券收益率蒙受上行壓力之際，中國正預備經由過程一個放寬準入前提的新籌劃向外部投資者開放其債券市場。中國要地本地債市已經是環球第三大債券市場，債券存量到達約7萬億美元，但是外國人持有的比例不敷2%。銀內行們樂觀地以為，4月的風暴不會嚇阻中國盼望吸引的那類歷久投資。
“The key to the move higher is that this is the repricing that everyone has been saying wasneeded and at the end of the process you will have a more attractively priced asset,” Mr Leesays. “After all, offshore investors aren’t going to come in if credit spreads go to zero.”
李民宏表現：“債券收益率走高的癥結是，這是全部人都一向說有需要湧現的從新訂價，這個進程停止時，你將具有價錢上更誘人的資產。究竟，假如信貸息差為零的話，離岸投資者不會出場。”
Liquidity has also played a part in pushing up yields as improving economic data have promptedinvestors to scale back expectations for further loosening of monetary policy.
活動性身分也在推高收益率方面起到了感化，由於漸漸改良的經濟數據匆匆使投資者響應地下降了對泉幣政策進一步放松的預期。
China’s seven-day bond repurchase rate is considered a benchmark for liquidity in thecountry’s interbank money market, especially since the People’s Bank of China moved toconduct daily market operations, up from twice-weekly, earlier this year. Last week, however,the rate reached 2.7 per cent, a level not seen since the stock market rout in July last year.
中國的7天堂債回購利率被視為銀行間泉幣市場的活動性基準，特別是在中國央行本年早些時刻把公然市場操縱的頻率從一周兩次調劑為每一個事情日一次今後。但是，上周7天回購利率到達了2.7%，為客歲7月股市狂跌以來未見的程度。
Zhou Hao, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank in Singapore, says: “Asactivity data are improving and inflation expectations are picking up due to rising food pricesand property overheating, the market expects less aggressive monetary policy easing.”
德國貿易銀行(Commerzbank)駐新加坡高等新興市場經濟學家周浩表現：“跟著經濟運動數據賡續改良、食物價錢上漲和樓市過熱致使通脹預期上升，市場預期泉幣政策寬松的力度將會變小。”
Previous expectations of easier policy have also encouraged a build-up of leverage in themarket, which could have put some investors in precarious positions. Banks and otherinvestors have increasingly funded new bond purchases with short-term borrowing —essentially relying on PBoC cash injections to keep borrowing costs low.
此前對更寬松政策的預期也助長了市場中杠桿的構成，這大概使一些投資者位於傷害的地步。銀行和其他投資者愈來愈多地靠短時間乞貸來張羅資金購置新債券——這其實是依附中國央行的資金註入來把乞貸本錢保持在低位。
Monthly transaction volume in the repo market — short-term loans that use bonds ascollateral — has surged and now exceeds total bonds outstanding, a sign of the popularityof this trade.
質押式回購(以債券為典質的短時間貸款)市場月度生意業務額激增，如今的範圍已跨越債券存量總額，表現出這類生意業務非常盛行。
The risk for the market is that further rises in money market rates makes the tradeunprofitable and forces investors to unload their bond holdings en masse. Any further pickupof corporate bond defaults could similarly spark a rush to the exit.
市場面對的危害是，泉幣市場利率的進一步上升將使這種生意業務無利可圖，迫使投資者團體將他們持有的債券平倉。企業債券違約若進一步增多，一樣大概致使投資者爭相平倉。
Analysts are keen to point out, however, that recent volatility appears to be mainly sentimentdriven. They say actual cash conditions remain relatively loose and the central bank has ingeneral still been injecting cash into the system in a sign that it intends to maintain ampleliquidity.
但是，剖析師們靈敏地指出，比來的顛簸看起來主如果市場情感驅動的。他們表現，現實的泉幣情況仍然相對於寬松，中國央行整體上仍然在向體系中註入資金，這註解它故意堅持充分的活動性。
Should the economy not worsen significantly or the PBoC change tack on liquidity, mostanalysts expect a stabilisation of China’s bond markets in the coming weeks. The one caveat,they warn: tax.
大多半剖析師預期，假如經濟不明顯惡化、大概中國央行不轉變活動性方面的計謀，中國的債券市場將在接下來的數周裏穩固下來。不外，他們對一點提出了告誡：稅。
As of this week repo deals will be taxed as part of broad tax reform affecting the servicessector centred on a shift from a turnover tax to one based on value-added charges.
本周起，回購生意業務將根據以“營改增”為焦點、影響全部辦事業的普遍稅改征稅。
Officials say that in the aggregate, the reform will reduce the tax burden on services firms,but some individual business lines will see taxes rise. The impact on bond trading is especiallylarge, since traders say that in practice, the turnover tax was often not assessed at all.
官員們表現，這一改造將在整體上削減辦事業企業的稅負，但某些營業範疇的稅負將會加劇。債券生意業務遭到的影響特別大，生意業務員們表現，在實踐中，業務稅每每基本未被審定。
A bond trader at a city-level bank in Shanghai, says: “The tax issue is quite significant. No oneknows yet how big an impact it will have, but people are worried.”
上海一家都會銀行的一位債券生意業務員表現：“稅的題目異常大。沒人曉得會帶來多大的影響，但人們很擔憂。”
市場價：HK$ 92
