Capital flows from China persisted in April despite areported rise in foreign exchange reserves, whichmainly reflec-ted the impact of a weaker dollar onthe central bank’s euro and yen holdings.
固然有報導稱中外洋匯貯備湧現回升，但4月份中國本錢外流仍在連續。中外洋匯貯備增長重要反應的是，美元走弱對中國央行持有的歐元和日元資產的影響。
After falling for 18 of 20 months until February,slicing $791bn off the headline total, China’s officialreserves rose by a combined $17bn in March andApril, hitting $3.22tn last month.
在停止本年2月的20個月中，中國有18個月外匯貯備湧現降低，共計削減7910億美元。而3月和4月，中外洋匯貯備總計增長170億美元，在4月末到達3.22萬億美元。
But a look inside the data suggests significant latent outflow pressure remains. China has alsobenefited from global tailwinds in recent months that may not last. The strongest of these isthe pause in interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, which caused a broad decline in thedollar versus global currencies.
但細看該數據可知，中國仍躲藏著很大的本錢外流壓力。近幾月，中國一樣受益於環球有益情勢，但這類情勢大概不會連續。個中最大的利好是美聯儲(Fed)停息加息，這致使美元相對於環球各地的泉幣湧現廣泛貶值。
“No matter due to tacit policy co-ordination or just dumb luck, the weakened US dollar hasgreatly eased the pressure on renminbi and capital outflows from China,” Larry Hu, a Chinaeconomist at Macquarie Securities, wrote yesterday.
麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)中國經濟學家胡偉俊(Larry Hu)昨日寫道：“不論是由於心領神會的政策調和照樣僅靠有時的命運運限，美元走弱都極大地減緩了國民幣和中國本錢外流的壓力。”
Fundamentals have certainly improved since the renminbi’s sharp fall in early January sentshockwaves through global markets. Predictions that uncontrolled capital flight would lead toa collapse in the renminbi, or rapid depletion of China’s reserves, now look increasingly rash.
自1月初國民幣匯率狂跌對環球市場造成打擊以來，中國經濟根本面切實其實有所改良。有人猜測，沒法掌握的本錢外逃將致使國民幣崩盤，大概致使中外洋匯貯備快速耗盡，但如今看來，這些猜測愈來愈顯得草率。
The People’s Bank of China’s use of forex reserves to stabilise the renminbi exchange rate, atactic that has been derided as unsustainable, has largely succeeded in beating backspeculators. Hedge funds that placed bets on renminbi depreciation are rethinking theirstrategy.
中國央行應用外匯貯備穩固國民幣匯率的計謀——被諷刺為弗成連續——大要上勝利地擊退了投契者。押註國民幣貶值的對沖基金正在從新思慮各自的計謀。
But the delay in Fed tightening has been crucial to the slowdown in outflows. The Fed’s raterise in December, combined with easing steps by the PBoC since late 2014, had drawn fundsout of China. But amid signs that China’s economy has stabilised, the PBoC has done nofurther easing since late February.
但美聯儲推延加息對中國本錢外放逐緩相當主要。美聯儲客歲12月的加息，和中國央行自2014歲尾今後實行的寬松辦法，匆匆使資金撤離中國。但因為看到中國經濟已企穩的跡象，中國央行自2月尾以來便再也不進一步出台寬松政策。
A weaker dollar also boosts China’s headline reserves directly through valuation effects, byincreasing the dollar-denominated value of the PBoC’s non-dollar assets. Royal Bank ofScotland estimates that mark-to-market accounting boosted China’s headline reserves by atotal of $54bn in March and April — implying that on a flow basis, reserves continued todecline.
美元走弱也經由過程估值效應——使中國央行非美元資產以美元盤算的代價湧現增長——直接提振中國團體外匯貯備數字。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)估量，本年3月和4月，以市值計價的管帳軌制令中外洋匯貯備數字總計增長了540億美元——這註解，從本錢活動的角度來講，外匯貯備仍在持續降低。
Further, if inflows from trade and foreign direct investment are stripped out, China sufferedportfolio outflows of about $45bn in both March and April, said RBS. While far less alarmingthan outflows of roughly $200bn last August, this figure shows that sentiment-driven capitalis still leaving China.
別的，蘇格蘭皇家銀行表現，假如不計入商業和外國直接投資帶來的本錢流入，中國在3月和4月都湧現了約450億美元的證券投資流出。固然這與客歲8月約2000億美元的流出範圍比擬沒那末使人擔心，但這個數字註解，受情感驅動的本錢仍在撤離中國。
“If the Fed hikes rates later this year and the Chinese economy rolls over again, forcing thePBoC to take more easing measures, we could see depreciation pressures re-emerge,” saidHarrison Hu, China economist at RBS in Singapore.
蘇格蘭皇家銀行駐新加坡中國經濟學家胡誌鵬(Harrison Hu)表現：“假如美聯儲本年晚些時刻加息，同時中國經濟再次湧現惡化，迫使中國央行采用更多寬松辦法，咱們會看到貶值壓力再次湧現。”
The PBoC’s efforts to staunch the outflows have also come at a cost to its own credibility andlong-term reform goals.
中國央行停止本錢外流的盡力也讓其在公信力和歷久改造目的方面支付了價值。
The central bank has repeatedly said it intends to let market forces set the exchange rate andreduce capital controls that limit cross-border flows. But since last year that goal has taken aback seat to efforts to restore stability.
它曾幾回再三表現要讓市場力氣來決議匯率，削減限定跨境活動的本錢管束。但自客歲以來，這一目的已讓處於規復穩固的舉動。
Not only has the PBoC spent hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves to defend theexchange rate, it has reimposed some capital controls in an effort to discourage currencyspeculation. Those include restricting forex purchases by individuals and halting a programmeto allow Chinese residents to invest in foreign hedge funds.
中國央行不但消耗數千億美元外匯貯備來保衛國民幣匯率，還從新實行了部門本錢管束辦法，以阻攔外匯投契。這些辦法包含限定小我購置外匯，和中斷一項許可中國住民投資外洋對沖基金的籌劃。
Ironically, backsliding on pro-market reforms is largely the result of the central bank’s well-intentioned but poorly communicated effort to reduce intervention. In August, when the PBoCannounced changes to the way it sets the exchange rate, it framed the move as a steptowards granting more influence to market forces. But as the change came at a time whenmarket forces were certain to push the currency weaker, many foreign investors interpreted itas an act of competitive devaluation to boost exports.
具備譏諷象征的是，市場化改造的倒退在很大水平上由中國央行削減幹涉的盡力致使——這項盡力初誌雖好，但沒有做好相同事情。客歲8月，中國央行宣告改造匯率構成機制，並將此舉視為朝著讓市場力氣施展更大感化的偏向邁出的一步。但因為這次改造正值市場力氣確定會推進國民幣走弱之際，很多外國投資者將之解讀為以競爭性貶值來提振出口的行動。
Even at the time, many analysts said this cynical interpretation was wrong, noting thatChina’s trade surplus was already near record highs. But the market’s panicked response tothe August move, which led to unprecedented capital outflow and a much sharper fall in theexchange rate than the central bank had anticipated, essentially forced the PBoC to returnto large-scale market intervention.
即使在其時，很多剖析師也表現，這類充斥疑惑的解讀是毛病的，他們還指出中國的商業順差已切近親近汗青高位。但市場對中國央行客歲8月舉動的驚恐反響——致使亙古未有的本錢外流和遠超中國央行預期的匯率跌幅——現實上迫使中國央行從新回到大範圍市場幹涉的老路。
This intervention focused on propping up the exchange rate, further undermining the PBoC“currency war” interpretation. But even so it strengthened the broader view that the PBoCwould never relinquish control of its exchange rate.
此輪幹涉重要聚焦於支持匯率，這進一步減弱了關於中國央行舉行“泉幣戰”的解讀。但它也強化了一個更加廣泛的意見，即中國央行毫不會廢棄對國民幣匯率的掌握。
“Recently, the central bank has focused on maintaining stability but that’s not the direction ofreform. It’s more like imposing stability is an ad hoc measure,” said Zhang Bin, senior fellowat the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government. “As forwhen the central bank will return to pushing forward reforms, at the moment it’s tough to say.”
“比來，央行專註於保護(匯率)穩固，但這並不是改造的偏向。保護匯率穩固更像是一種暫時辦法，”為當局獻策的智庫中國社會科學院(CASS)的高等研討員張斌說，“至於央行什麽時候回歸推動改造之路，今朝還很難說。”
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