找一個周末在香港的海港城(Harbour City)逛一逛，在阛阓擁堵的人群中，評論辯論闌珊仿佛有點小題大做。但這裏切實其實比2014年寧靜多了，當時候從中國要地本地來的旅客排發展隊，只為進入這裏的奢靡品專賣店，帶來的發賣額讓這家阛阓險些占了全港零售花費額的非常之一。
香港零售業的近期消息一向讓人絕望。跟著要地本地旅客到首爾、東京和巴黎等都會追求新感受，依據當局數據，香港2月零售發賣額同比降低21%。在剔除價錢變更後，這是香港零售發賣額自1998年9月以來的最大跌幅。中國最大的珠寶連鎖店周大福(Chow Tai Fook)本月表現，估計利潤將由於“大中華區花費者意願削弱”而下滑40%到50%。
就在2014年，海港城還驕傲地傳播鼓吹其每平方英尺發賣額為天下最高。香港零售業的風雲幻化不太大概在別之處完整重現，同時也給奢靡操行業的視察人士帶來一個教導：中國人對高端商品和感受的興致轉移得有多快。
剖析人士將中國人花費習氣的變更歸因於幾種身分，包含匯率更改，但更主要的是習氣和咀嚼的賡續變更。
“奢靡感受並不是只包括購物。在香港，奢靡品牌包羅萬象，另有一些快時尚品牌——但中端商品不太豐碩，博物館大概文化運動的數目也有限，”裏昂證券(CLSA)主管花費品和博彩行業研討的艾倫•費舍爾(Aaron Fischer)說，“但若去東京、首爾、巴黎大概米蘭，你的選取要多很多。”
遭到有益的匯率的助推，日本和韓國變得尤其熱點。依據裏昂證券的奢靡品價錢查詢拜訪，12個月前在東京售賣的商品要比在香港廉價20%——與歷久以來東京比香港貴20%的情形相去甚遠。但比來，日元相對美元升值，而港幣和美元掛鉤，這象征著日本的商品價錢再次變得加倍昂貴，約莫比香港貴10%。
對付奢靡操行業而言，更主要的是，客歲標記著花費者習氣湧現了龐大變更：英國《金融時報》旗下研討部分“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)自2013年開端這項研討以來，發如今外洋旅行的過程當中，客歲中國旅客花在留宿、食品和文娛上的總付出初次跨越了購物付出。購物付出同比均勻降低6.9%，較充裕旅客的購物付出更是降低了10%。
剖析人士將這歸結於旅行閱歷豐碩的中國人正變得更有眼力。“我第一次去巴黎的時刻買了一套Hugo Boss的西裝，由於我買得起，並且那是我第一次旅遊。如今我買咖啡，我不買更多的西裝了，”瑞銀(UBS)駐香港花費行業專員梁裕昌(Spencer Leung)說。
梁裕昌快要期中國出境遊大增和受青睞品牌發賣額增加歸因於中國遭到壓制的需求。多年來，中國人日趨增加的小我財產遭到旅遊限定的約束。
“其他任何處所都沒有過如許的情形——有如斯之多的需求被克制。對中國人來講，在2012年後天下的開放要快很多，列國開端爭取中國旅客的美元並放松簽證限定，”梁裕昌說。
西方購物者習氣的變更也在中國花費者身上重現，特別是在時尚方面。更年青的花費者對他們在線上找到的小眾品牌日趨感興致——這些品牌大概乃至都不須要如旗艦店等任何線下實體來拉動發賣。
曩昔一年中，環球奢靡品牌在中國花費者中央的人氣有升有降。依據FT“投資參考”的《中國出境遊年度申報》，香奈兒(Chanel)的人氣進步了，購置該品牌的受訪者比例從20%上升到26%。其他的贏家包含蔻馳(Coach)，愛馬仕(Hermès)和古馳(Gucci)，而迪奧(Dior)和阿瑪尼(Armani)的市場份額降低了。
對付新入行者，“要在中國到達像香奈兒大概路易威登(Louis Vuitton)那樣的品牌著名度須要很多年，”奢靡品牌咨詢機構LBB Asia的開創人奧德•布塞(Aude Bousser)說。
該查詢拜訪將香奈兒人氣上升的一大緣故原由歸結於其勇敢的計謀。在中國要地本地和熱點的境外目標地(包含香港)，香奈兒將某些產物貶價高達20%。此舉被以為部門是為了填補歐元對國民幣貶值，同時也是為了襲擊灰色市場(商品經由過程未授權的零售商賣出)。香奈兒同時在歐洲進步了價錢以到達“調和”，該公司表現。
在訂價和留住中國購物者的各種挑釁中，最明顯的一個特點是變更快得讓人沒法跟上措施。
致力於逢迎中國人奢靡品口胃的企業正在奮起直追。只管最近香港海港城少有列隊的征象，客歲這家阛阓的計謀轉向更側重團體感受，這贊助實現了比繁華時代更高的總收入——和更高的利潤。
【參考譯文】
Wander around Hong Kong’s Harbour City on any given weekend, and among the crowds thronging the shopping mall, talk of a downturn might appear overdone. But it is quieter than in 2014, when queues of mainland Chinese formed just to get into luxury boutiques, driving sales that made the mall responsible for almost a tenth of the city’s entire retail spend.
Recent retail news in Hong Kong has been disappointing. Year-on-year sales were down 21 per cent in February, according to government figures, as Chinese tourists sought new experiences in cities such as Seoul, Tokyo and Paris. After stripping out price changes, this was the biggest fall in Hong Kong retail sales since September 1998. Chow Tai Fook, the largest Chinese jewellery chain, said this month that it expects profits to be down 40-50 per cent on “weaker consumer sentiment in [the] Greater China region”.
While Hong Kong’s swift change of fortune — as recently as 2014 Harbour City boasted the world’s highest sales per square foot — is unlikely to be exactly replicated elsewhere, it contains lessons for luxury watchers on how quickly China’s appetite for upscale goods and experiences can shift.
Analysts attribute China’s changing habits to several factors, including exchange rate moves, but more importantly to evolving habits and tastes.
“The luxury experience is not just about shopping. In Hong Kong, all the luxury brands are here and some of the fast fashion brands too — but there is not much diversity at mid-price points and there are a limited number of museums or cultural activities,” says Aaron Fischer, head of consumer and gaming research at brokerage CLSA. “But go to Tokyo, Seoul, Paris or Milan and you have a much wider number of options.”
Japan and South Korea have become particularly hot, helped by favourable exchange rates. According to CLSA’s luxury price checks, goods in Tokyo 12 months ago were about 20 per cent cheaper than in Hong Kong — far from their long-run average of being about 20 per cent more expensive. But more recently, the yen’s rise against the US dollar — to which Hong Kong’s dollar is pegged — means that Japanese prices have again become more expensive, with a premium of roughly 10 per cent.
More important for the luxury sector is the fact that last year marked a sea-change in habits: for the first time since it began its research in 2013, FT Confidential Research found Chinese tourists spent more on accommodation, food and entertainment combined abroad than on shopping. Year on year, shopping fell on average 6.9 per cent, and 10 per cent among wealthier travellers.
Analysts put this down to well-travelled Chinese becoming more discerning. “The first time I went to Paris I bought a Hugo Boss suit because I could and it was my first trip. Now I buy coffees, I don’t buy more suits,” says Spencer Leung, a consumer industry specialist at UBS.
Mr Leung attributes the impressive recent rise in overseas trips and the sales growth for favoured brands to the pent-up demand within China where, for years, rising personal wealth was held back by travel restrictions.
“We haven’t had this situation anywhere else — where so much demand was held back. For Chinese, the world opened up much more quickly only after 2012 when countries started fighting for the Chinese tourist dollar and eased visa restrictions,” says Mr Leung.
Changing habits among western shoppers are repeated with their Chinese counterparts, particularly in fashion. Younger consumers are increasingly interested in niche brands they discover online — and which may not even need any physical presence such as a flagship store to drive sales.
Global luxury brands have had mixed fortunes among Chinese consumers in the past year. According to FT Confidential Research’s Annual Chinese Outbound Tourism report, Chanel increased its popularity, with 26 per cent of respondents buying the brand, up from 20 per cent. Other winners include Coach, Hermès and Gucci, while Dior and Armani lost share.
For newer entrants, “to reach the level of brand awareness in China of a Chanel or a Louis Vuitton is going to take years,” says Aude Bousser, founder of LBB Asia, a luxury brand consultancy.
The survey puts much of Chanel’s gains down to its bold strategy of cutting prices for some products by as much as 20 per cent in the mainland and in popular overseas destinations, including Hong Kong. This move is attributed in part to making up for the weakness of the euro against the renminbi and also to combating the grey market, where goods are sold through unauthorised retailers. Chanel increased prices in Europe at the same time so they would be “harmonised”, the company said.
Among the challenges of working out prices and retaining Chinese shoppers, one of the most remarkable features is the unmatched pace of change.
Businesses catering to China’s luxury appetite are catching on. Despite the lack of queueing these days in Hong Kong’s Harbour City, last year the mall’s shift in strategy towards focusing on the overall experience helped pull in higher gross revenues than in the boom years — and bigger profits, too.
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