Can you imagine the ignominy? According to arumour circulating among Hong Kong bankers, theAsian business of ANZ Banking Group had shrunk somuch it was being run through the Australian bank’sNew Zealand unit.
你能想象這類羞辱嗎?香港銀行界有傳言稱，澳新銀行團體(ANZ Banking Group)的亞洲營業緊張縮水，以致於如今是由這家澳大利亞銀行的新西蘭分行治理。
For a bank with ambitions to challenge the region’sbig three in wholesale banking — HSBC, Citigroupand Standard Chartered — that would have been an embarrassing retreat. In reality it turnedout that the New Zealand connection extended only to the nationality of ANZ’s new chiefexecutive, Shayne Elliott, and the location of its tiny regional retail operations, not itswholesale business.
對付一家有大誌挑釁該地域批發銀行業三巨子——匯豐(HSBC)、花旗團體(Citigroup)和渣打(StandardChartered)——的銀行來講，這是一次為難的退卻。究竟上，末了與新西蘭的幹系也只是延長到了澳新銀行新任首席履行官謝恩•埃利奧特(Shayne Elliott)的國籍、及其眇乎小哉的地域零售營業(而非批發營業)的所在上。
Another high-profile pullback from Asia would have burnished the region’s reputation as adeathtrap for ambitious overseas banks. Barclays sounded the retreat this year, slashing itsinvestment banking operations. Before that it was Royal Bank of Scotland, which sold much ofits corporate business to ANZ.
再來一次惹人註目標撤出亞洲的行為，該地域作為雄心壯誌外洋銀行的傷害之地的名聲將進一步增強。巴克萊銀行(Barclays)本年已通報出退卻的旌旗燈號，大幅減少其投資銀行營業。再以前是蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bankof Scotland)，它把大部門企業營業賣給了澳新銀行。
Other lenders are finessing their operations in Asia: wealth management is in, investmentbanking less so.
其他銀行正在調劑各安閑亞洲的營業：加大理財營業，削減投資銀行營業。
The fact that Asia’s patchwork of heterogeneous markets remains difficult to navigatesupports the argument that banks are better off being local. Costs are rising and regulation isincreasingly national, even political. Indonesia, for example, made access to Singapore for itslocal banks a condition of the sale of a majority of Bank Danamon to the city state’s DBS.
究竟上，多樣性的亞洲市場仍舊很難打入，這支撐了一種概念，即銀行最佳是當地的。本錢賡續增長，羈系日趨上升到國度、乃至政治層面。比方，印度尼西亞把許可本國銀行進入新加坡市場，作為將印尼金融銀行(Bank Danamon)多半股權出售給新加坡星展銀行(DBS)的前提。
But still the contenders come. As well as ANZ and DBS, there has been a step-up in activityfrom China’s giants, led by Bank of China, and Japan’s megabanks, spearheaded by MitsubishiUFJ Financial Group. It is obvious why they see an opportunity in Asia outside Japan andAustralia: it is home to more than half the world’s population, an emerging middle class thatis significantly underbanked, and a rising share of the world’s largest companies. Even excludingChina these trends hold.
然則，仍舊有競爭者進入這個市場。與澳新銀行和星展銀行同樣，以中國銀行(Bank of China)為首的中國銀行業巨子、和以三菱UFJ金融團體(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)為首的日本大型銀行的運動也有所進級。他們之以是看到除日本和澳大利亞之外的亞洲地域的成長機會，緣故原由很顯著：這裏具有環球一半以上的生齒，新興中產階層顯著未獲得充足的金融辦事，同時這裏具有的環球最大企業賡續增長。縱然把中國消除在外，這些趨向也成立。
And what is telling about these latest contenders is that they all hail from the region, are mostlyplaying to existing strengths and are making their moves gradually. This is a far cry from theapproach of Barclays, which made a splash in 2010 with a string of big-name investmentbanking hires, who have since departed.
這些最新參加的競爭者具有很能解釋題目的特點：它們都來自該地域、重要應用本身的現有上風、慢慢采用行為。這與巴克萊的計謀有天地之別。2010年，巴克萊因挖走連續串名聲赫赫的投資銀內行而引發驚動，那些人厥後連續分開了巴克萊。
There are reasons for this softly-softly approach. Corporate banking does not lend itself to thesame sort of flashy tactics as investment banking. Poaching a rival’s head of trade finance willnot have the same effect as snaffling the head of Morgan Stanley’s investment bankingbusiness, which Barclays did.
新參加者如許穩紮穩打的做法是有緣故原由的。企業銀行營業其實不合適實行像投資銀行那樣招搖的計謀。挖走競爭敵手的商業融資主管，與挖走摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的投行營業主管(就如巴克萊所做的)，二者的後果弗成等量齊觀。
Moreover there are domestic considerations. ANZ’s largely homegrown shareholder base hasnever loved its Asian adventure, not least because of the lower returns than those earned onAustralian mortgages. This week the bank reiterated its commitment to its Asian operationspartly because selling $3bn of part-stakes in banks across the region had created theimpression that it was in full retreat. But the drop in international revenues following thosestake sales will also attract less attention at home.
別的，另有一些來自海內的考量。澳新銀行的股東大多來自本土，他們一向都不愛好澳新銀行在亞洲的冒險，特別是由於這些冒險運動的回報低於該行在澳大利亞的典質貸款中所獲的回報。本周，澳新銀行重申將持續在亞洲運營的許諾，部門緣故原由是該行出售了散布在亞洲的一些銀行總值30億美元的部門股權，讓人發生了澳新銀即將周全退出亞洲的印象。但出售這些股權釀成的國際收入下降也會使來自本土的留意力削減。
Compared with DBS and ANZ, the strategy of the Chinese and Japanese groups has beensimpler: follow home-grown clients around the region with a cheque book. For MUFG and itsrivals anything has to be better than Japan’s low growth and negative interest rates. At BofClocal units have been increasingly borrowing in dollars and euros, ready to fund outboundinvestment. BofC is ahead of its mainland rivals in terms of international sophistication,analysts say. MUFG, meanwhile, has demonstrated its commitment by buying into local banks.
與星展銀行和澳新銀行比擬，中國和日本的銀行的計謀更加簡略：拿著支票簿緊跟該地域本土客戶的腳步。對三菱UFJ金融團體及其競爭敵手而言，任何工作確定都比日本的低增加和負利率好。中國銀行確當地分支正在借入愈來愈多的美元和歐元，預備好為對外投資供給資金。剖析師們表現，在國際營業精致化方面，中行已走在了個中國要地本地競爭敵手的前面。三菱UFJ金融團體則經由過程買入本地銀行的股分展示刻意。
But none of this is likely to unseat the big three global banks in the foreseeable future. InMarch a survey of corporate banking relationships by Greenwich Associates put HSBC’smarket penetration at 60 per cent, StanChart’s at 50 per cent and Citi’s at 44 per cent. ANZand DBS followed with 34 and 33 per cent respectively. That gap is narrower than it was in2010, when Deutsche Bank was fourth with 20 per cent, but it is still marked and few industrywatchers expect sharp change, given the importance of relationships with regional tycoons.
但以上這些都不太大概在可預感的將來將三大環球性銀行趕下寶座。依據Greenwich Associates在3月對企業銀行營業幹系舉行的查詢拜訪，匯豐銀行在該地域的市場滲入滲出率是60%，渣打為50%，花旗為44%。澳新銀行和星展銀行分離以34%和33%的市場滲入滲出率緊隨厥後。差距比2010年的時刻縮小了，其時排在第四位的德意誌銀行(Deutsche Bank)的市場滲入滲出率是20%。但差距仍然明顯，斟酌到這些銀行與地域富翁的幹系的主要性，鮮有行業視察人士猜測這類情形將湧現巨變。
To many clients the big three, with more than a century of presence, can look more like localsthan international behemoths. Alas for their would-be rivals, their businesses are in part anaccident of history that cannot be replicated. None of those empires was built in a day. But atleast the contenders for their crown appear to have taken that fact to heart.
對三大環球性銀行的很多客戶而言，這些銀行在本地運營了逾一個世紀，比起國際巨子它們看起來大概更像本地銀行。對那些想要與之對抗的銀行來講就很遺憾了，某種水平上這三大銀行是一種沒法復制的汗青產品。這些帝國的建成都不是一日之功。但最少，試圖牟取它們皇冠的比賽者們仿佛都把這個究竟銘刻於心。
市場價：HK$ 110
