In Confucian philosophy it is taken for granted that children will look after their parents. In 21st-century China, things are proving to be very different. With most adults working full time, plus the demographic issues resulting from the one-child policy, the country presents a fascinating case for those interested in the social and economic challenges of ageing populations, not to mention the business opportunities.
For just this reason Florian Kohlbacher moved to China in August after 11 years studying demographic change in Japan — almost 50 per cent of the population of Japan is aged 50 or older.
Now he is associate professor of marketing and innovation at the International Business School Suzhou, part of Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, where he will head up the Research Institute on Ageing and Society.
The business school will take the lead in the institute to focus on the business implications of population ageing, though at least 10 other departments, including public health, architecture and industrial design, will be involved,
Nationwide problems
With a population of 1.4bn, part of the issue in China is its scale, says Prof Kohlbacher, although the one-child policy has exaggerated the demographic trend. On top of this is China’s economic status. Japan was rich before the rise in its ageing population; China is not there yet. “The whole social system is not ready for this,” warns Prof Kohlbacher.
A Chinese government report published in September pointed out that 8 per cent of China’s consumption related to products and services for older people, a market worth Rmb4tn.
By 2050, according to the report, that proportion of gross domestic product will rise to a third.
“This is a real business opportunity,” says Prof Kohlbacher. “Though 2050 might be far away, this is something to work on immediately. But companies are not putting much thought into it.”
It is an attitude he finds hard to fathom. “Managers have problems converting these trends into specific applications. Management is about uncertainty, but demographics is one area where forecasting actually works.”
Impact on business
First there is the ageing workforce. In China women usually retire at 55 and men at 60, so companies are losing people with tremendous experience and knowledge.
Second, life expectancy in China is now 76, which means a healthy old age is increasingly achievable, which could lead to a tremendous demand for products and services for the “silver-hair market” as it is known in China, either through the adaptation of existing products or the development of new ones.
The travel industry is a prime example, says Prof Kohlbacher. “It was something they [older people] couldn’t do in their youth because China was cut off.”
Need for innovation
Pharmaceuticals is another obvious market, as are care homes and nursing services. And in the west premium cars are popular with older people, says Prof Kohlbacher. What is more, in China, older people have money to spend. Traditionally they passed on wealth to their children and grandchildren, but the one-child policy has changed this and they are now thinking more about themselves.
“This means things are special in China. It can already serve as a laboratory for us to study an ageing society,” he says. He believes this research will become more significant in future. “A lot of things here have to be built from scratch, so it is a new approach.”
Alternative research
In the US, Boston College has an institute for ageing and work, while MIT Sloan has its AgeLab focusing on the labour market. But given the scale of the problem, rues Prof Kohlbacher, the levels of research are woeful.
依照儒學概念，後代照料年邁怙恃是理所當然的。但在21世紀的中國，情形已變得大為分歧。因為大多半成年人都有全職事情，加之獨生後代政策激發的生齒題目，中國不但給研討生齒老齡化所激發社會與經濟挑釁的人供給了一個極有吸引力的例子，並且由於老齡化而包含著偉大商機。
正因如斯，弗洛裏安•科爾巴赫(Florian Kohlbacher，見上圖)客歲8月來到了中國。此前，他花了11年研討日本生齒變更——該國50歲以上生齒已占到總生齒的近50%。
科爾巴赫現為姑蘇西交利物浦大學國際商學院的營銷與立異學副傳授，並將引導老齡化與社會研討所(Research Institute on Ageing and Society)。
該商學院將牽頭組建該研討所，重點研討生齒老齡化包含的貿易意義，而包含大眾衛生、修建和產業計劃在內的最少10個其他院系也將介入研討。
天下性題目
科爾巴赫表現，因為具有14億生齒，中國的部門題目與其範圍有關，但獨生後代政策又放大了這類生齒老齡化趨向。另有一個題目是中國的經濟狀態。日本在湧現生齒老齡化題目以前已是個富國，而中國今朝還不是富國。“全部社會系統並未預備好歡迎生齒老齡化，”科爾巴赫傳授告誡稱。
客歲9月中國當局頒布的一份申報指出，與老年人相幹的商品和辦事占中國海內臨盆總值(GDP)的8%，老年市場潛力達4萬億國民幣。
該申報猜測，到2050年，老年人花費占GDP的比例將進步至三分之一。
“這是一個實其實在的商機，”科爾巴赫傳授說，“固然2050年還很迢遙，但如今就要采用行為，而企業界對此並未予以太多存眷。”
他認為這類立場使人費解。“企業治理者在詳細應用這些趨向方面存在題目。治理必定面臨不肯定性，但在生齒題目上，猜測確切有效。”
對貿易的影響
起首是存在老年勞動力。在中國，女性一樣平常55歲退休，男性60歲退休，是以企業正在流失具備豐碩履歷和常識的人材。
其次，中國今朝的預期壽命是76歲，這象征著康健的暮年可期，將致使對“銀發市場”商品與辦事的偉大需求，企業可以經由過程對現有產物舉行改革和開辟新產物，知足這類需求。
科爾巴赫傳授說，旅行業便是一大例子。“因為中國曩昔比擬閉塞，他們(老年人)年青時沒法旅行。”
立異需求
制藥業是另外一個不言而喻的市場，另有養老院和照顧護士機構。科爾巴赫傳授說，在西方，高端照顧護士在老年人傍邊很受迎接。別的，中國老年人手頭有錢。傳統上，他們會把財產留給後代和孫輩，但獨生後代政策轉變了這類情形，他們如今會更多為本身著想。
他說：“這註解中國有著特別的情形。中國已可以成為咱們研討老齡化社會的一個試驗室。”他以為，這類研討在往後會變得加倍故意義。“中國的很多器械都要從零開端，是以這是一條新的途徑。”
其他研討項目
在美國，波士頓學院(Boston College)設有一個老齡化與事情研討所，麻省理工學院斯隆治理學院(MIT Sloan)設有專門研討勞動力市場的老齡試驗室(AgeLab)。但科爾巴赫傳授遺憾地表現，因為老齡化題目已相稱嚴格，當前的研討程度還很低。
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