本日口譯：五大來由：蘋果大概要造汽車
華爾街券商Sanford C. Bernstein的剖析師托尼·薩康納姆其實不確信蘋果公司會不會涉足汽車制作業，但他可以確定的是，蘋果對這個很感興致。本周二發給客戶的申報中，薩康納姆對此給出了如下五個來由：
來由一：汽車業年發賣額跨越1萬億美元，對蘋果來講是個特殊宏大，並且具備可行性的市場。近幾年蘋果絕大部門發賣增加都由iPhone拉動，而高端智妙手機市場將來增加估計將放緩，與此同時汽車市場供給了穩步增加的偉大商機，可助蘋果事跡穩步上升。
來由二：蘋果是一家產物至上的企業，從汗青上看，它絕不害怕進入已發育健全的市場。蘋果一向專註於制作溢價高的差別化產物，無懼與業內的強勁敵手競爭，個中很多敵手都在研發方面投入重金。
來由三：特斯拉僅用較小的預算就推翻了汽車行業，而蘋果具有源源賡續的資金支撐。
來由四：只管汽車業的利潤只位於中等程度，但蘋果素來善於走高價產物線路，並且總能憑此計謀賺走行業大部門利潤。
來由五：往後幾年，中國的汽車制作才能有望迎來大成長。咱們以為，蘋果有大概借重之外包方法在中國制作或組裝汽車。
"那末，是不是能確信蘋果將制作汽車?"薩康納姆問道。他的答復是：
"不克不及肯定。緣故原由之一便是，蘋果推新產物時會很謹嚴。只有以為本身的新產物真正舉世無雙時，蘋果才會推向市場。要斷定蘋果到底會不會推出汽車，還很多視察各類跡象，今朝任何人都很難料中，蘋果本身大概也並未肯定。特別是斟酌到蘋果在產物方面一向信仰'絕對要有特點'，假如蘋果然要造汽車，很多是純電動車並且多是無人駕駛汽車，要做到這兩點須要壯大的技巧氣力，還得超過羈系方面的停滯。"
存眷挪動家當的Asymco博主、著名蘋果剖析師賀拉斯?德迪歐在Twitter上對本文批評道："像平常同樣斷定失誤。"(願望這話指的是薩康納姆的概念)德迪歐以為：蘋果只有在確信可以做出故意義的進獻時才會進入某個行業，好比挖掘並辦理某項未知足的需求。他說："利潤就來自辦理未知足的需求，這裏有沒有盡的財產等著有才能的公司。"
【參考譯文】
5 reasons Apple may make a car
Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi is not convinced Apple will actually get into the automobile manufacturing business, but he's pretty sure they're interested. In a note to clients Tuesday, he offered five reasons why:
Reason 1:The auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable market for Apple, with over $1 trillion in annual sales. Given that the vast majority of Apple's growth in recent years has been driven by the iPhone, and that the high-end of the smartphone market is projected to have a tepid growth outlook, the auto market provides a huge, incremental market opportunity that could move the needle for Apple going forward.
Reason 2:Apple is a product company and has historically been undaunted by entering established markets. Apple's focus has been on making premium, differentiated products and has taken on established competitors, many with deep R&D pockets
Reason 3:Tesla has upended the auto industry on a relatively shoestring budget. Apple has nearly limitless financial resources.
Reason 4:Although auto industry margins are middling, Apple's premium-priced products have historically enabled it to command a disproportionate share of industry profits.
Reason 5:Significant car manufacturing capacity is likely to develop in China over the next few years, which we believe Apple may be able to leverage to subcontract manufacturing/assembly of a car.
"So are we convinced Apple is making a car?" Sacconaghi asks. And then he answers his own question:
No, in part because Apple is typically very patient in bringing a product to market, and will ultimately only do so if it believes it has an offering that is truly distinctive. A lot needs to be occur for anyone (including Apple) to know whether that will indeed transpire, particularly since Apple's historical "feature absolutism" points to an Apple car that would very likely be all-electric and likely autonomous, both of which require significant technology and regulatory hurdles to be scaled.
"Wrong as usual," tweets Asymco's Horace Dediu (referring to Sacconaghi, I hope, and not me). His point: Apple only enters a business if it believes it can make a meaningful contribution, i.e. uncovering and solving an unmet job to be done. "The profit comes from solving an unmet job," he says. "There's an ocean of money waiting for those who do."
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