The number of jobs lost to more efficient machines is only part of the problem...In the past, new industries hired far more people than those they put out of business. But this is not true of many of today’s new industries.”
“更高效機械釀成的事情流失數目只是題目的一部門……曩昔，新行業聘請的員工數目遠遠跨越這些行業砸掉的飯碗。但現在許多新行業卻並不是如斯。”
This sentiment, from Time magazine, dates from the early weeks of John Kennedy’s presidency. Yet it would slot nicely into many a contemporary political speech. Like any self-respecting remorseless killer robot from the future, our techno-anxiety just keeps coming back.
來自《時期周刊》雜誌(Time)的這類概念可回溯到約翰肯尼迪(John Kennedy)擔負總統最初幾周。但是，把它放進現今很多政治演講中也涓滴不會顯得突兀。與全部來自將來的那些有自負心、冷淡無情的殺人機械人同樣，咱們對科技的擔心也隔一段時光就又返來。
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Terminator was science fiction — but so, too, is the idea that robots and software algorithms are guzzling jobs faster than they can be created. There is an astonishing mismatch between our fear of automation and the reality so far.
阿諾德施瓦辛格(Arnold Schwarzenegger)主演的《閉幕者》(Terminator)是科幻片子，而這類意見也是科幻、而非實際：機械人和軟件算法斷送就業的速率快於創培養業的速率。咱們對付主動化的擔心與今朝的實際湧現了驚人的不符。
How can this be? The highways of Silicon Valley are sprinkled with self-driving cars. Visit the cinema, the supermarket or the bank and the most prominent staff you will see are the security guards, who are presumably there to prevent you stealing valuable machines. Your computer once contented itself with correcting your spelling; now it will translate your prose into Mandarin. Given all this, surely the robots must have stolen a job or two by now?
怎樣會如許?矽谷的高速公路上行駛著很多無人駕駛汽車。去影院、超市大概銀行的時刻，你看到的最顯眼的員工將是保安，他們存在的緣故原由也許是為了防備你偷盜代價昂揚的機械。你的電腦曾知足於改正你的拼寫;現在電腦會把你寫的文章翻譯成通俗話。鑒於這統統，這些機械人如今確定已盜取了一兩份事情了吧?
Of course, the answer is that automation has been destroying particular jobs in particular industries for a long time, which is why most westerners who weave clothes or cultivate and harvest crops by hand do so for fun. In the past that process made us richer.
固然，謎底是歷久以來，主動化一向在搗毀某些特定行業的某些特定事情，這便是為何現在多半西方人親手織布或栽種和收割農作物是為了好玩。曩昔，做這些能為咱們帶來收入。
The worry now is that, with computers making jobs redundant faster than we can generate new ones, the result is widespread unemployment, leaving a privileged class of robot-owning rentiers and highly paid workers with robot-compatible skills.
如今人們擔憂，斟酌到電腦斷送就業的速率快於咱們發明新就業的速率，會湧現大範圍賦閑，培養一個由具有機械人的食利者和具有兼容機械人技巧的高薪員工構成的特權階層。
This idea is superficially plausible: we are surrounded by cheap, powerful computers; many people have lost their jobs in the past decade; and inequality has risen in the past 30 years.
外面上看來，這類概念是公道的：咱們被便宜且壯大的電腦包抄;曩昔10年，許多人賦閑;曩昔30年，不屈等水平一向上升。
But the theory can be put to a very simple test: how fast is productivity growing? The usual measure of productivity is output per hour worked — by a human. Robots can produce economic output without any hours of human labour at all, so a sudden onslaught of robot workers should cause a sudden acceleration in productivity.
但咱們可以用一個異常簡略的測試來磨練這一理論：臨盆率增速有多快?權衡臨盆率的平日尺度是一小我類的每小時產出。機械人可以在涓滴不增長人類勞動時光的情形下發明經濟產出，是以機械人勞動者的大批侵襲應會帶來臨盆率增加的忽然提速。
Instead, productivity has been disappointing. In the US, labour productivity growth averaged an impressive 2.8 per cent per year from 1948 to 1973. The result was mass affluence rather than mass joblessness. Productivity then slumped for a generation and perked up in the late 1990s but has now sagged again. The picture is little better in the UK, where labour productivity is notoriously low compared with the other G7 leading economies, and it has been falling further behind since 2007.
但是，究竟上臨盆率一向使人絕望。在美國，1948年至1973年，勞動臨盆率增速均勻為每一年2.8%，這很了不得。成果是大範圍充裕，而非大範圍賦閑。接著，臨盆率下滑了一代人時光，在上世紀90年月末回升，現在又再次墮入低迷。英國的情形也沒有好到那邊去，家喻戶曉，英國的勞動臨盆率低於七國團體(G7)其他成員國，自2007年以來兩邊差距還一向在拉大。
Taking a 40-year perspective, the impact of this long productivity malaise on typical workers in rich countries is greater than that of the rise in inequality, or of the financial crisis of 2008. In an age peppered with economic disappointments, the worst has been the stubborn failure of the robots to take our jobs. Then why is so much commentary dedicated to the opposite view? Some of this is a simple error: it has been a tough decade, economically speaking, and it is easy to blame robots for woes that should be laid at the door of others, such as bankers, austerity enthusiasts and eurozone politicians.
以40年的時光段來看，富國通俗勞動者臨盆率歷久低迷的影響要跨越不屈等水平上升大概2008年的金融危急。在經濟範疇諸多工作使人絕望之際，最使人絕望的工作便是機械人一向未能奪走咱們的事情。那末，為什麽有如斯多談吐致力於闡述相反的概念?部門緣故原由在於一個簡略的毛病：從經濟的角度來看，曩昔這十年是艱苦的十年，咱們很輕易將本應怪罪於其別人(好比銀行業人士、死力主意壓縮的人士和歐元區政治界人士)的逆境歸罪於機械人。
It is also true that robotics is making impressive strides. Gill Pratt, a robotics expert, recently described a “Cambrian explosion” for robotics in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. While robots have done little to cause mass unemployment in the recent past, that may change in future.
機械人家當正獲得不俗希望，這也是究竟。機械人專家吉爾渠拉特(Gill Pratt)比來在《經濟瞻望期刊》(Journal of Economic Perspectives)中寫道機械人科學湧現“寒武紀大暴發”。只管比來機械人險些沒有造成大範圍賦閑，但將來這點大概會產生變更。
Automation has also undoubtedly changed the shape of the job market — economist David Autor, writing in the same journal, documents a rise in demand for low-skilled jobs and highly skilled jobs, and a hollowing out of jobs in the middle. There are signs that the hollow is moving further and further up the spectrum of skills. The robots may not be taking our jobs, but they are certainly shuffling them around.
別的，主動化無疑轉變了就業市場的狀態，經濟學家戴維攠塙爾(David Autor)在統一份期刊中記載了低技巧和高技巧事情需求的上升和中等技巧崗亭的流失。有跡象註解，崗亭流失征象正愈發向更高技巧的崗亭舒展。機械人大概沒有奪走咱們的事情，但它們確定正對咱們的事情從新洗牌。
Yet Mr Autor also points to striking statistic: private investment in computers and software in the US has been falling almost continuously for 15 years. That is hard to square with the story of a robotic job-ocalypse. Surely we should expect to see a surge in IT investment as all those machines are installed?
但是，奧托爾還指出驚人的數據：美國電腦和軟件範疇的私家投資已險些連續地下滑了15年。假如說機械人會帶來就業末日的話，這很難說得通。既然那末多機械已就位，咱們確定會估計IT投資會飆升，不是嗎?
Instead, in the wake of the great recession, managers have noted an ample supply of cheap human labour and have done without the machines for now. Perhaps there is some vast underground dormitory somewhere, all steel and sparks and dormant androids. In a corner, a chromium-plated robo-hack is tapping away at a column lamenting the fact that the humans have taken all the robots’ jobs.
但是，在大冷落以後，治理者留意到便宜人類勞動力供給充分，一向知足於臨時不應用機械人。大概，在地下某個處所有一個偉大的宿舍，內裏都是閃著金屬光芒、位於休眠狀況的鋼鐵機械人。在一個角落裏，一個鍍鉻的機械人雇工正在敲打鍵盤撰寫一篇專欄，哀嘆人類已奪走全部機械人的事情。
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