The online shopping sale on Nov 11 has been put in the spotlight with analysts keen to find solid evidence of improving consumer demand that might bolster the slowing economy.
比來，11月11日網購非常火爆。剖析師們非常願望可以或許找出證據，證實花費者需求上漲可以或許動員遲緩增加的經濟。
Unfortunately, the prospering e-commerce industry can hardly solve the problems facing the economy on its own.
不幸的是，電商行業辦理經濟題目的辦法仿佛並弗成行。
China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Ltd launched the online Singles' Day sale in 2009. Since then, the date, made up of four lonely "ones", has become the world's biggest online shopping event.
中國電商偉人阿裏巴巴團體有限公司在2009年時提議了王老五騙子節大匆匆銷。該節日(11月11日)由四個“1”構成，現已成為網上購物的隆重節日。
The expectations are this year will be another bonanza and set a new sales record, which has ignited hopes that online consumption can at least partially offset the downward pressure on the economy from falling investment and exports.
人們等待本年的定單數額將會革新記載。大概在線花費可以部門抵消投資和出口下跌的經濟下滑走勢。
A closer look at the event, however, shows such hopes are unrealistic.
但是，假如咱們細心斟酌一下這件事，這類願望是不實際的。
The soaring sales on Singles' Day are actually a "sales overdraft" that results from the sudden release of consumers' pent up demand. Many people opt not to make planned purchases days or months ahead of Nov 11 hoping to benefit from the promotional discounts offered that day, and sales generally fall sharply after the event.
王老五騙子節的銷量劇增實際上是“銷量透支”，花費者們為隱性需求買單。有些人在雙十一以前的幾天乃至幾個月都不購物，只為了在11月11日當天可以或許在打折衷得到一些優惠。並且在節日事後，銷量也會下滑。
There is yet no evidence to support the notion that the contrived shopping spree provides a real boost to the country's overall annual consumption.
而且，並無證據註解這類變態的花費克制征象會讓中國整年的花費程度上升。
In reality, for many brands it represents a marketing opportunity rather than a means to significantly increase their annual sales. Some dishonest online retailers even use tricks to avoid offering real discounts in a bid to deceive buyers into thinking they are getting a bargain. For example, they may raise prices in the run-up to Singles' Day before announcing "big discounts" for Nov 11.
現實上，許多商家把這看作一種營銷手腕，而非現實增長銷量。有些不老實的網上零售商還會誘騙花費者，供給虛偽扣頭，讓花費者誤認為本身以優惠價購置。比方，他們在王老五騙子節以前把價錢擡上去，然後在當天打著“打折匆匆銷的”幌子。
However, consumers are becoming more rational and avoiding the impetuous spending that has characterized previous one-day sales specials as they realize such events are only a gimmick to get them to part with their money.
但是，花費者們愈來愈理性，愈來愈能防止激動花費。他們以為這類只有一天的打折匆匆銷實在只是一種噱頭，目標是為了讓他們費錢罷了。
Actually, growth in China's consumer demand has been quite stable in recent years. And with the overall economy weakening, the growth in consumption has been trending down, which is in line with the overall economic trend.
現實上，近年中國花費者的需求已很穩固了。跟著經濟低迷，花費漲勢也有所緩解，同經濟走勢堅持同等。
Among the three major factors driving a country's economic growth - domestic consumption, investment and exports, domestic consumption is the most stable. And considering the weak economy, which affects people's confidence in spending, there will hardly be any major improvement in consumer demand despite the hurly-burly of the Nov 11 shopping event.
拉動中國經濟增加的三大重要力氣——內需、投資和出口當中，花費程度是最穩固的。斟酌到經濟低迷的近況會影響到住民花費，只管雙十一當天有購置運動，也其實不會湧現花費者需求大幅度增加的情形。
There is no denying that the convenience of online shopping can stimulate people's desire to buy, but at the same time it squeezes traditional consumer demand, partly offsetting its positive role in economic growth.
誠然，在線購置非常便利，切實其實會匆匆使花費者們的購置欲。然則同時，它也會使傳統購置需求被緊縮，在必定水平上抵消了電商使經濟增加的感化。
For a developing country such as China, the biggest hurdle preventing fast consumption growth is consumer concern about the future because of the country's immature social security network. Many people are worried about their post-retirement life and are very cautious in making purchasing decisions.
比方像中國同樣的成長中國度，阻攔經濟快速成長的實質在於由於國度沒有成熟的社保系統，花費者們對將來覺得擔心。許多人擔憂他們退休今後的生存，以是在買器械的時刻也會特殊謹嚴。
Policymakers need to accelerate their pace in improving the social security network and raise people's incomes to stabilize people's expectations for the future and encourage them to spend.
政策制訂者須要加速進步社保系統措施，進步收入，令人們對將來有平安感，勉勵其花費。
Yet the top priority at the moment is to stabilize the economy. China's infrastructure investment has been growing exceptionally fast in recent months to offset the effect of the falling exports. Against that backdrop, many people have pinned their hopes on faster consumption growth to provide a more sustainable driver of the country's economy.
但是，如今的重要義務照樣要使經濟穩固。中國的基本舉措措施投資在比來幾個月成長很快，抵消了出口下滑的缺口。對付經濟下滑，很多人都寄願望於花費快速增加，為經濟供給動力。
Indeed, retail sales rose steadily from July to September - from 10.5 percent to 10.9 percent year-on-year, and they are expected to rise further thanks to the Nov 11 event. Still, such small improvements will not suffice to anchor the economy and the Nov 11 sales boom is but a drop in the bucket of required spending.
誠然，零售商銷量從7月的10.5%上漲到了9月的10.9%，還大概會在雙十一的時刻持續上漲。然則，如許的小幅度增加其實不會會影響經濟走勢，雙十一的銷量只是花費的滄海一粟罷了。
市場價：HK$ 110
