How bad is a life without work? I have been asked this question a lot lately. It is becoming pretty clear that the forces of globalisation and technological progress are reshaping economies and societies, especially in advanced economies, and that these effects are being felt most right in the centre of the workforce across the individuals and families that make up what Americans call the middle class. Lots of the traditional jobs for these people are disappearing in the rich world, and wages for remaining workers are pretty stagnant.
假如沒有了事情，生存會變得何等糟?我比來被屢次問到這個題目。如今很顯著，環球化和技巧提高正轉變經濟和社會面孔(特殊是在蓬勃經濟體)，受影響最大的是位於勞動力焦點的人群，即組成美國人所謂中產階層的小我和家庭。對付這些人而言，在富國，許多傳統事情正消逝，其他勞動者的薪資緊張裹足不前。
The fact that the middle class is being hollowed out in country after country is rightly of concern. A large, stable, prosperous middle class is important for civil society; most informed observers agree that it supports inclusiveness, tolerance, democracy and many other good things. It is also a great engine of overall demand for an economy lots of moderately affluent households buy lots of things. But what happens when the industrial-era jobs that underpinned the middle class start to vanish? Voltaire offered a prescient caution, observing: “Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need.”
一個又一個國度湧現中產階層空心化，這一究竟理應讓人擔心。一個大範圍、穩固且充裕的中產階層對付國民社會很主要;多半有見地的視察人士以為，它為社會包涵性、寬容、民主和許多其他優秀品德供給支持。對付一國經濟而言，它也是一個推進團體需求的偉大引擎，許多中等充裕的家庭會購置許多商品。但當支持中產階層的產業時期事情開端消失機會如何?伏爾泰(Voltaire)提出了具備先見之明的告誡，他以為：“事情可使咱們免去三大害處：抑郁、縱欲、饑寒。”
Of these three, I’m least worried about need. Trade and technological progress, after all, make a society wealthier in aggregate. The problem that they bring is not one of scarcity of not enough to go around. Instead, they bring up thorny questions of allocation. Most of us earn money to buy the things we need via our work what do we do when opportunities for work become scarce?
在上述3種害處中，我最不擔憂的是饑寒。究竟，總的來講，商業和技巧提高讓社會變得更加富有。它們帶來的題目不是物資缺少沒有充足物質來知足生存所需。它們帶來的辣手題目是財產分派。咱們多半人經由過程事情贏利購置咱們須要的器械，假如事情機遇變得稀缺，咱們該怎樣辦?
So to boredom and vice: how bad are they? How worried should we be about them? I sometimes hear the argument that we should not be worried at all. If we do not need people’s labour, the logic goes, why should we care what they do? Why should traditional notions of boredom and vice matter? If people want to drink, take drugs, engage in casual sex or play video games all day, where is the harm? These are not the most conventionally respectable or productive activities, but why should we let convention hold sway?
至於抑郁和縱欲：它們有多大害處?咱們對它們的擔心應當到何種水平?我偶然聽到這類意見：咱們基本不消擔憂。這類意見的邏輯是，假如咱們不須要人們的勞動，咱們為何要在意他們做甚麽呢?傳統看法對抑郁和縱欲的意見有甚麽要緊?假如人們想飲酒、吸毒、亂交或全日打視頻遊戲，其害處表如今那邊?從傳統上來講，這些並不是最面子或最有效的運動，但咱們為什麽要讓傳統決議咱們做甚麽呢?
One reason for concern comes from research by the political scientist Charles Murray documenting how much social conditions have changed over the past 50 years for lower-middle class Americans (while remaining essentially unchanged for the upper-middle class). Divorce rates have skyrocketed, as have crime rates, the number of children being raised outside two-parent homes and the number of men who have essentially dropped out of family and community life.
一個擔憂的來由來自政治學家查爾斯默裏(Charles Murray)的研討，他記載了曩昔50年，美國基層中產階層的社會狀態產生了多大變更(上層中產階層的社會狀態根本未變)。仳離率飆升，一樣飆升的另有犯法率、在雙親家庭以外的情況中長大的兒童數目、和根本上退出了家庭和社區生存的男性的數目。
These social ills have come alongside the disappearance of industrial era jobs. There is active debate about whether the disappearance of steady work causes them, or whether they are all due to other factors. I am in the camp that believes that the disappearance of work is a cause, not just a correlation.
這些社會題目是跟著產業時期事情消逝而湧現的。人們正熱鬧評論辯論這些題目是否是穩固事情消逝致使的，照樣完整出於其他身分。我以為，事情的消逝是緣故原由，而非只是相幹身分。
A recently published paper by 2015 Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton and Anne Case reveals a much more alarming trend than social decay: while death rates for almost all American adults have dropped sharply in the past few decades, those of the least educated middle-aged whites have actually increased. They found that between 1999 and 2013 the death rates of this group rose by 134 per 100,000. This is a huge jump. As Mr Deaton writes: “Only HIV/Aids in contemporary times has done anything like this.”
2015年諾貝爾獎(Nobel Prize)得主安格斯迪頓(Angus Deaton)和安妮凱斯(Anne Case)比來揭櫫的一篇已論文，揭露了一個比社會題目更使人擔心的趨向：只管曩昔幾十年，美國險些全部成年人的滅亡率都大幅下滑，但那些受教導水平最低的中年白人的滅亡率現實上一向在上升。他們發明，1999年至2013年，該群體的滅亡率上升了1.34‰，這類增幅是偉大的。正如迪頓所寫的那樣：“在現代社會，造成過相似成果的只有艾滋病。”
What is causing this tragic spike? Professors Deaton and Case found that the majority of the rise could be attributed to three factors: suicide, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and alcohol and drug poisoning. The people in this socio-economic group, in other words, are killing themselves deliberately and inadvertently, quickly and slowly.
造成滅亡率慘劇性上升的緣故原由是甚麽?迪頓和凱斯傳授發明，大部門增幅大概要歸罪於3個身分：自盡、歷久肝病和肝硬化、和酒精和福壽膏中毒。換句話說，身處這個社會經濟群體的人正故意或偶然、敏捷或遲緩地自盡。
Much more research is required to understand the causes of this development. But I do not think the employment woes of this group are incidental to the story; I think they are central to it, and that it is far from a coincidence that the employment-population ratio for US adults with no more than a high school degree was less than 52 per cent in September. The boredom and vice that come when work goes away are a serious public health problem.
要懂得致使這類情形的緣故原由須要更多研討。但我以為，這個群體的就業逆境不是有時的;我以為，這類逆境是焦點緣故原由，本年9月，具有高中或以放學歷的美國成年生齒的就業率低於52%，這遠非偶合。賦閑致使的抑郁和縱欲是一個緊張的大眾康健題目。
Intriguingly, Profs Deaton and Case find that Hispanic and black Americans have not seen the same recent mortality increases. This could be because they have been more economically marginalised, and so less accustomed to the steady middle-class jobs that whites have enjoyed, but that are now vanishing for the least educated among them.
風趣的是，迪頓和凱斯傳授以為，美國西裔和黑人比年來的滅亡率並無湧現相似的上升。這多是由於，他們在經濟上更加邊沿化，是以不像美國白人那樣習氣於一向享有穩固的中產階層事情，但對付他們當中受教導水平最低的人而言，這種事情如今正在消逝。
This is far from the whole story. But it seems to me that Voltaire’s first two great evils are starting to show up in the social and health statistics, and we should all be concerned about that.
這遠非故事的全貌。但在我眼裏，伏爾泰提到的前兩大害處仿佛正開端反應在社會和衛生統計數據中，咱們都應答此覺得擔心。
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